很有意思的文章，前财长的看法。
ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, On Monday August 8, 2011, 8:50 pm EDT
It is beginning to feel a lot like 2008 all over again. But it's not the same.
As markets tumble - the Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.6 percent on Monday - it is instructive to hear from someone who knows a thing or two about a financial crisis: Henry M. Paulson Jr., the former Treasury secretary.
And he turns out to be more sanguine about the United States, after the Standard & Poor's downgrade, than some other voices being heard amid the tumult.
"While the players in Washington certainly haven't performed at AAA level, I would certainly take U.S. Treasuries over other AAA sovereigns any day," Mr. Paulson told me.
Yes, there has been much hue and cry over S.&P.'s cut in the credit rating of the United States. But the credit rating downgrade almost seems like a bad joke considering what happened in the bond market: Treasuries rallied as yields fell on Monday to their lowest levels since 2009. In other words, investors felt Treasuries were a safer - yes, safer - bet after S.&P. downgraded them than they were before. (What does that say about S.& P.'s credibility in the bond market?)
The downgrade may point up the enormous challenges facing the country - persistent unemployment and the possibility of slower economic growth is a hard truth that may ultimately force the cost of borrowing to rise for the nation over the long term.
But the downgrade is almost a sideshow compared with the real reason that stocks started falling Monday morning, before panic set in and the momentum of the market took over: the intractable problems in the European Union, which look a lot more like the United States banking crisis circa 2008 than what's happening on this side of the Atlantic now.
Pretend for a moment that countries like Greece, Spain and Italy are our banks in 2008. They are close to insolvent. (And the actual banks in Germany, Britain and France that are supposed to be strong are horribly undercapitalized and are holding too much debt from countries like Greece, Spain and Italy - all countries that truly may not be able to pay it back in full.)
As Mr. Paulson told me, "The most pressing and significant problems in the global economy are unsustainable structural issues with regard to the E.U. - fiscal deficits and the structure of the E.U. itself."
This story might not grab as much attention, but it is this plight that is manifesting itself in the market.
The problem is that without any one individual in charge in Europe, there is virtually no possibility for someone to emerge the way that Mr. Paulson did during the panic of 2008 with a lifeline like the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a plan he practically had to ram down the throat of Congress. (And there's no money for such a program unless a coalition is formed.)
Say what you want about TARP - it was clearly unpopular - but in retrospect, it is hard to argue that it did not keep the economy from going off a cliff. A handful of people with conflicting interests could never come up with such a program. "The E.U. is an odd construct - multiple political systems with disparate economies and fiscal policies but a single currency and monetary system," he said.
Now, just as was the case in the fall of 2008 before Lehman Brothers collapsed, the panicked rumor mill in Europe is in full swing. On Monday, traders were passing along rumors that a French bank and an Italian bank were on the verge of collapse. (There's no evidence that the rumors are true, but the concern is that such chatter can become a self-fulfilling prophesy.)
In Greece, regulators announced a two-month ban on short-selling to prevent investors from betting against stocks. Sounds just like 2008, right?
And when and if there is another bank in Europe - or worse, an entire country - on the precipice, it is unlikely there will be the political will to bail it out. Yes, just like Lehman Brothers.
In the United States, the speculation game jumped the pond. This time it centered on Bank of America, after a report that David Tepper, the founder of the hedge fund Appaloosa Management, had dumped his entire 17-million-share stake in the bank. (In truth, he has sold about 40 percent of his stake.)
Still, Mr. Paulson said he was less worried about the troubles in the financial sector of Wall Street than in Europe. "In the U.S., our capital markets and banks are stable and much better capitalized and better regulated than they were," he said.
But he did suggest that the problems in Europe could be a lesson for us if we didn't get our house in order, echoing a thought that S.&P. made when it downgraded our long-term debt.
"Many of the Western democracies - including the U.S. - have a problem that voters want benefits they don't want to pay for," Mr. Paulson said.
Nonetheless, Mr. Paulson said he actually took some solace in the debate over the debt ceiling, despite its ugliness.
"The good news over the last six months or so - beginning with Bowles-Simpson - is that there is now a much better understanding of what is by far our biggest structural economic problem," he said referring to the Bowles-Simpson bipartisan fiscal commission that looked at ways to cut the deficit.
"Bowles-Simpson was particularly helpful by highlighting the fact that we are such a wealthy country that if we act soon we can deal with this problem with shared sacrifice but without any segment of our society having to sacrifice too much."
Mr. Paulson, a longtime Republican, even appeared to break with party ranks by going so far as to opine that slashing spending wasn't the only answer. "The most discouraging fact is that, as important as expense-cutting is - and it is essential that we cut - we can't just cut our way out of this problem."
His comment implied that a tax overhaul - and the possibility of raising revenue, a prospect that most Republicans have castigated - may need to be on the negotiating table as part of any solution.
Unfortunately, while Mr. Paulson may be bullish on the long-term prospects for the United States and the nation's ability to pay back its debts, he is less convinced that a solution will come anytime soon.
"We need fundamental, structural reform and that is impossible without bipartisan compromise and cooperation," he said, "which doesn't appear to be forthcoming before an election which changes the players."
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-8-9 12:04 PM
发表于 2011-8-9 12:05 PM
