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发表于 2010-7-14 09:32 AM
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‘Sell Rallies’ Before S&P 500 Correction: Technical Analysis
2010-07-14 15:19:39.396 GMT
By Julie Cruz
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should “sell the rallies” as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will soon enter a strong correction, according to technical analysts at UBS AG.
The U.S. benchmark index will fall to between 944 and 1,000 at the end of the third quarter, UBS analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller wrote in a note dated yesterday. The gauge was little changed at 1,094.98 as of 11:15 a.m. in New York, halting six days of gains, the longest winning streak since April 15.
“Although the rally is going higher than initially thought, our negative medium-term view is unchanged and we would use strength to sell instead of chasing the market on the upside,” Zurich-based Riesner said in a phone interview today.
“In the very short-term the sharp rally of the last six sessions shows that the market is getting increasingly overbought.”
With the index rising back above 1,042, a head-and- shoulders formation has been negated, along with the “worst- case scenario” of falling to 900 and entering a bear market, according to Riesner. A head-and-shoulders pattern occurs when share prices form three consecutive peaks, with the middle being the highest. The start of a decline is signaled when prices fall below a support level in line with the low points between the peaks.
“We will see a more complex bounce pattern, which suggests that after a short set-back this week we could see a second bounce attempt into later July before the start of another significant tactical down-leg into later Q3,” the analysts wrote in the note.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-7-14 09:27 AM
