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发表于 2010-1-15 01:15 PM
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S&P price and 13-day average support at 1138/34 now ideally holds to maintain the immediate
upward bias for a push through 1148, above which then opens up 1157/60, ahead of early
October 2008 highs at 1175. Bigger picture, we target the 1221/35 zone, comprising a key
weekly high from late September/early October 2008 and the 61.8% retracement of the
2007/2009 collapse. Failure at 1134 could put renewed pressure on support at 1128 – a break
below which would see the index at risk of a deeper setback, towards key recent weekly lows
at 1113/10. These lows we expect to try to hold. Failure could warn of more significant
exhaustion of the rally from November, and would likely see price action back in the Q4
consolidation area, where we look for initial support at 1101/1097. The VIX looks set for a
period of choppy sideways trading. Above 21.68/83 is needed to signal a significant bullish
reversal on weekly charts, and below 16.86 sees the downtrend re-accelerate, for 15.82 next. 1 |
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