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发表于 2009-9-30 01:22 PM
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Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end.
“The odds are we flatten out,” Greenspan said today in a Bloomberg television interview, referring to the equity market. “That flattening out will put some sort of dull face on 2010.”
Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. As a result, unemployment isn’t likely to decline much from last month’s 9.7 percent rate, he said. Even so, he doesn’t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year.
The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate from April through June, the best performance in more than a year, the Commerce Department said today. An unexpected decline in a gauge of business activity released today, along with a private report showing employers cut more jobs than forecast, indicate a recovery may be slow to take hold.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 57 percent since its low for the year on March 9, an ascent that’s had a “very positive” impact on the economy, Greenspan said.
The stock index was down 0.2 percent to 1,059.13 at 1:44 p.m. in New York after falling as much 1.3 percent following the reports from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. and ADP Employer Services.
Growth will be boosted in coming months by the inventory cycle as companies bring stockpiles of goods into line with sales, Greenspan said. The former Fed chief said the economic recovery won’t prevent continued downward pressure on consumer prices.
‘Disinflationary Environment’
“We are still by any measure in a disinflationary environment,” said Greenspan, 83.
Consumer prices have fallen for six straight months from year-earlier levels, the longest stretch of declines since a 12- month drop from September 1954 to August 1955, according figures from the Labor Department.
Greenspan said there’s a longer-term risk that inflation will accelerate if the Fed fails to rein in the stimulus it has pumped into the economy, adding that the central bank’s $2 trillion balance sheet is “not sustainable.”
He also voiced concern that political pressure would prevent the Fed from taking actions necessary to keep consumer prices in check. |
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