2012-06-W3

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-6-21 14:18
怎么跌得这么厉害？

再看:
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... ;page=14#pid1838280

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

多谢，粗略看了下，好像不是很乐观

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

thanks again, that's what was in my mind too. The meeting costed me a chance to short the mkt, which showed up in my system. I have sold most of my ST longs before I took off.

On a longer timeframe, I feel this round of sell-off may present a good buy chance. We'll see

snowrider

Dvorak's "New World" Symphony 真是百聽不厭!

时时是好时

大牛图上紫线的第一个拐点已经到了，雪大仓位有什么调整吗今天？

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-21 14:41
大牛图上紫线的第一个拐点已经到了，雪大仓位有什么调整吗今天？

今天就這樣了 ...  偶今天不會做任何中長線倉位的調整!

oldpigwang

At 4:pm, Moodys downgrade several major bank. Knocked  mkt down to the closing bell.

snowrider

No trade for medium- and long-term position today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 25% (10%-06/11, 15%-06/12)
- EEM 25% (06/15)
- Cash 25%

Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- TQQQ (06/11)
- FAS (06/12)
- TNA (06/19)

Today's long solid black candle pierced back into previous Inverted H&S bottom and closed below the neckline.  That was a very negative price action because anything above the neckline got trapped.  Furthermore, that the scenario of an impulsive wave structure to north got screwed.  If we cannot get a good reversal candle tomorrow to stop this falling price, we will need to roll back to a very negative wave count for the long term view - SPX 960.

Wave count (for the bulls):
06/19/2012's high = [[C]].[A]
Now we are in the middle of [B] and looking forward to seeing a reversal at 50% (1315) area tomorrow.
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market falls below the right shoulder - 06/12/2012's low).

Irene2011

Snowrider，is 06/12/2012's low for your long term? What's your stop for your medium term holding? Thanks.

cat2011

Thank you for your update, very helpful

snowrider

Irene2011 发表于 2012-6-21 17:03
Snowrider，is 06/12/2012's low for your long term? What's your stop for your medium term holding? Th ...

Same price for my medium term position.  They differ only in how they are entered.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-21 18:07
Same price for my medium term position.  They differ only in how they are entered.

Which means ... I will have a all-out big liquidation tomorrow if the market falls below that area.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-21 18:08
Which means ... I will have a all-out big liquidation tomorrow if the market falls below that area ...

Then I'll take a break for few days on the long/mediem term trading (still DT everyday though) if it really happens.

Irene2011

Thanks Snowrider. Today's down was too sharp, hope there will be a rebound tomorrow.

tang1688

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-21 16:57
No trade for medium- and long-term position today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today' ...

Thank you !!!

thomast

What a day. I start thinking, for people who have to work day time, it might not be a good idea to trade stocks. Maybe better stop 'investment' completely??
How was everyone doing? Looks like it's quite possible the 6/12 low would break.

Snowrider laoda, pls let us know when you take action in next couple of days. Thanks.

snowrider

thomast 发表于 2012-6-21 23:32
What a day. I start thinking, for people who have to work day time, it might not be a good idea to t ...

thomast - Any decision that a person makes has its own risk.  From buying a car to marrying someone, all involve some risk - big or small.  One can avoid the risk of 'investment' by putting money in the bank, and then it runs into another risk - inflation.  When we are trying to scoop some money from the market, we are competing against the most brilliant people in the world, and you know that the risk is that they also want to scoop your money away.  Some people enjoy taking risk, but some don't.  As long as you know where your bottom line is, the risk is just like some token that you can use for betting for better reward.

If one does not trade, her life becomes much simpler.  Why?  she will know how much she can make in her whole lifespan by multiplying income with working years (maybe 5% per year salary increase?).  Then she knows what she can achieve at most in the end.  Then she knows what dreams she can have and what cannot (aford to) have.  Then she knows her life is a done deal!  Trading provides you not only the thrill of riding roller coaster but also the dreams!

I guess that everyone is doing well.  I am a relatively conservative trader.  Even if the market were to crash and got me stopped out, the damage would not be too bad because I always stick to some very rigid rules on money management and risk control.  BTW, "... for people who have to work day time ...", trading the medium- to long-term timeframes is the way to go for them, as long as they place GTC stop orders to protect their positions.  They do not even need to monitor the market during the day.  Hope this helps!

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-19 09:24
啊，太好了。可以和雪大讨论一下这个话题。是的，我的图是藏文“唵，啊，吽”三字真言中的‘啊’字。啊 ...

網上收尋了一下 除了這三字真言之外 還有擴大版的六字真言 ... 儘管網上說其功用多麼強大  但偶不理解的是為何那三字明或是六字大明咒與學佛的生活態度有任何關係?  或是那只是一個實實耳提面命自己的一個有代表性的東西 (像是基督徒攜帶十架同樣?)

时时是好时

TLT好弱啊，昨天大盘猛跌它只是象征性地涨一点。今天大盘一个小反弹它倒是泻了。。。

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-22 11:22
TLT好弱啊，昨天大盘猛跌它只是象征性地涨一点。今天大盘一个小反弹它倒是泻了。。。

TLT 昨天無法一鼓作氣去破週一的高點 那就得先回頭 ... 目前市場的不確定性還很大