08/06/2010 大盘回顾 （Speculation about the next price and time target）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up, I hold trapped short position over weekend. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/11,8/26 08/09 / 08/08 8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/06 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L *07/30 low *Adjust stop loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

 

维持07/30 Market Recap的forecast，the correction since 04/26 isn’t over and the rebound since 07/01 is near end。

 

从下面的图可以看到，反弹5周了，还是不能beat过去2周的pullback，看着至少不象是去年mad cow的样子。

 

 

从另一方面看，散户(represented by Rydex traders, courtesy of sentimentrader)却很牛。

 

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，而从VIX:VXV看，大盘已经没有多少上升空间了。不要忘了，这个图即使是去年mad cow的时候都是工作的。

 

 

下面的图是把上面的图放大，看看最近几次VIX:VXV extremely low的时候，都发生了什么？

 

 

以上，总结一下，就是我还是不认为大盘还有多少上升空间。我估计，the final target是SPX 1131，pivot date则是08/10左右。

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary里已经提到了，08/06不象是pivot day的样子，那么下一个pivot day就是08/09到08/11的time window，我的猜测是08/10 Fed day。

 

 

下面的图是关于price target的推测。从07/01开始的反弹，呈现了很强的Fib关系，就是说，pullback止于Fib 50% of the previous up leg，而rebound是Fib 61.8% of the previous up leg。根据这个关系，由于周五的low正好是the previous up leg from 07/30 to 08/04的Fib 50%，因此可能pullback已经结束，而新的反弹目标，如果还是Fib 61.8% of the previous up leg from 07/30 to 08/04 rebound的话，就是1131左右。至于时间，如果还是pullback day = rebound day的话，应该是2 trading day，正好也是08/10 Fed day。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT BULLISH MONDAY

 

目前看起来Bullish Monday应该没有多大疑问，这个基本符合intermediate-term session above关于pullback已经结束，expect 2 day rebound to 1131的分析。

 

6.5.2a Weekday Seasonality Watch, bullish Monday is back?

 

 

6.2.4a SPX and VIX Divergence Watch, both VIX and SPX closed in red, 73% chances a green day the next day.

 

 

SPY had 2 hollow red bars in a row, buy at close (that’s Friday) sell at the next day close, you have 70% chances since year 2000.

 

 

SPY had back to back 2 unfilled gaps in a row, buy at close (that’s Friday) sell at the next day close, you have 65% chances since year 2000.

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP	*4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): 2 black bars in a row, doesn’t look good.
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP	*4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP

balto

好久没坐蛇皮沙发了。。。都5分钟了居然还没人。。。

wower

SF!!
Thanks Cobra!

jingriver

SF.

源济

源济

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

happyface

这老晚的还工作,快休息吧.谢谢

uddi

quickcow

early this weekend....
Thanks

nokia

大牛Steve

mikeqc

还在第一页吗？

oldfox

temujin

thanks

soulvirus

ranchgirl

great

trader88

非常感谢老蛇不懈的辛勤劳动.不容易啊。

妞妞

谢谢班长! 班长辛苦了, 班长的精彩分析对我们帮助很大, 再次感谢!

benshou