08/03/2010 大盘回顾 （Still Not Far Away from Overbought Zone）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but the model did nothing today. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/6,8/11,8/26 08/09 / 08/08 8/2,8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/09 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so market bottomed? BEARISH

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L Breakeven

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

在07/30 Market Recap里我提到了08/06这个pivot date，这是目前离我们最近的pivot date了，因此今天解释一下它的重要性。我比较倾向于SPX持续反弹或者盘整到08/06附近形成顶部，当然，如果大盘一路跌至08/06的话，08/06就是底部。

 

08/06是NFP day (Non Farm Payroll)，见下图，可以清楚地看到很多转折点就发生在NFP day。

 

 

从下面的Gann Day table可以看到在过去10年里，有很多highs/lows就发生在6号附近，因此这是个非常神奇的日子。

 

 

从04/26开始到现在基本上每个反弹都持续5到9个trading day，因此假设我们这次反弹持续mini 5 trading day的话，正好是08/06。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: STILL PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERBUGHT ZONE

 

今天没啥好说的，搞不清楚下面market要怎么玩，如果这一轮反弹还是像过去一样持续5到9个交易日的话(see intermediate-term session above)，那么应该反弹还没有结束。不过，明天如果大涨，可能后天又要回调，因为08/02 Market Recap里提到的两个信号，T2122 and T2112，今天虽然得到了修正，但是离overbought并不远。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

ddr

sofa, hahahaha

happyface

板凳

福多多

辛苦了！

PDX

thanks.

darren168

Thanks

can2000

thanks

ht008

usamonkey

vicvic

neo

福多多

转折发生在六日附近是有道理的，阴历换月令的时间通常发生在阳历的四日至七日。

oldfox

surya

Thanks!

chickencoop

thanks

slcgh

nstar

不怕被套怕枕套

ding

sooners

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ut1984