I believe we are in a bear market for risk assets. From FA perspective, there have been plenty of evidences suggesting that the global 'recovery' is slowing down. Governments around the world knowing that they have printed too much money in the past 2 years, are either unwinding stimulative fiscal policies in the fear of inflation (emerging markets), or cutting down public expenses in the fear of insolvency (developed countries). The FEAR factor is now overwhelming over the GREED factor.
We have entered the Great Depression episode III since April 2010. The 1st test on the important supporting band 1008-1013 has been held 2 weeks ago. However the 2nd test is set to come, which may leads SPX to 943 area if 1008 broken.
SPX seems following a fortnightly cycles to touch highs & lows. If this trend still holds, SPX will touch the next low 2 weeks after 16th July.
EURUSD has come out of a H&S pattern. which is a strong signal that the big EURO crisis may have ended. The question is now whether & when EURO will retest the blue neck line. My guessing is that at least it will not happen anytime soon given the current weakness in USD, and EURO shall penetrate 1.2999 and touch 1.3263 next week. EURO will not lose steam as long as China continues buying European assets, and China will not stop buying as long as CNY continues appreciating against USD. Angela Merkel is just having a 'historical' visit to China (in premier Wen's words).
JPYUSD broke down from a 2 Heads & 2 Shoulders pattern, retested the neck line and now plunge again. I don't see any meaningful support above 84.79, and my long term target is around 75.
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-7-18 09:51 AM
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喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-7-18 09:55 AM
