07/15/2010 大盘回顾（New Recovery High then Bigger Pullback Thereafter）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:00 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	1 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	2 of 3 are SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode
Short-term		5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	The trend is still up but I hold no overnight long position.
GANN DAY	MOON/SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
07/14-07/17	07/25 / 07/23	07/16, 07/31	Next pivot date: 07/16

BULLISH	6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom when 2 MAD within 5 days?
BEARISH	6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	*07/15 L	N/A	Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.
ST Model			*Setup mentioned on 07/14 was not confirmed and therefore no long valid.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: EARLY THIS WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH

See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HUGE REBOUND BEFORE 2ND LEG DOWN

Still expect a 2nd leg down but since the retailers sentiment is way too bearish so the rebound we have now could be huge. See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: MARKET MAY TURN DOWN SOON

该说的昨天都说了(see 07/14 Market Recap)，time, price and price pattern都说要跌了，今天又是个反转棒，3 reversal like bars under major bear trend line，多少说明点问题吧？因此还是维持昨天的forecast: Expect new recovery high (higher than the Tuesday's high) but be careful of a bigger pullback thereafter.

NYADV MA(5) at extremely high，很可惜没有重复去年mad cow的pattern，尽管history may not simply repeat itself，但是小心是没大错的。特别是下周，according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 11, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%.

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，这个的重要性昨天已经交待了。今天这东西confirmed “kiss goodbye”，看着不好。我知道，会有人说，因为bond market 3:00收市，所以没赶上最后30分钟的大涨，well, let’s take a look at TLT intraday chart，好像没有在最后30分钟暴跌啊，所以所谓bond market早收市的理由不成立。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – New update. Click BLUE* to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	UP
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

hahaha · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:01 PM

wow, sf!

hahaha · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:02 PM

Even ban Deng

raise3 · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:04 PM

Cooker · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:05 PM

Ding

pig2006 · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:06 PM

wa, 今天早！谢谢！

marketguy · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:08 PM

ding

leftright · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:09 PM

vicvic · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:12 PM

Fig · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:14 PM

1st page?

southware · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:17 PM

今天好早，呵呵。顶班长

新低手 · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:20 PM

开小差 · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:21 PM

thx, ding

maldini · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:22 PM

zeebra · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:25 PM

1st page

zeebra · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:27 PM

bearish engulfing tomorrow!

cartier · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:29 PM

dudu · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:29 PM

yanjun · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:30 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2010-7-15 05:30 PM

Thanks!

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[技术分析] 07/15/2010 大盘回顾（New Recovery High then Bigger Pullback Thereafter）

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[技术分析] 07/15/2010 大盘回顾 （New Recovery High then Bigger Pullback Thereafter）

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[技术分析] 07/15/2010 大盘回顾（New Recovery High then Bigger Pullback Thereafter）