06/30/2010 大盘回顾 （Head and Shoulders Top To Be Confirmed）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 2 of 2 are SELL 3 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC < –9%, bottomed? 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: MDD > 35, bottomed? BEARISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): bearish engulfing were bearish for the next several weeks. *4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top to be confirmed.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   *Possible sell short signal, if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close and has a  new low. May not be a good timing, so be careful. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/30 S N/A *Closed the long entered on 06/17 with loss and shorted on 06/30. Be sure to check the chart from 8.2.2a Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2004 to 8.2.2g Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2010 to understand the risks of trading on trend following indicators which usually has a lower winning rate and relies heavily on a few winning trades to profit in the long run.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

 

下面的图是7月的seasonality (courtesy of sentimentrader)，可以看到明天和后天都很bullish。在06/25 Market Recap里，我还列出了几个明天和后天bullish的统计，有空可以复习一下，因为现在牛牛的希望就在于明后天的seasonaltiy了。不过，the bottom line，06/29 Market Recap里已经提了，QQQQ down 7 days in a row，表明下跌的动力很大，因此不要指望第一次反弹就能成功，应该反弹之后，至少还有one more leg down。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP TO BE CONFIRMED

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，今天的故事是Head and Shoulders Top neckline breakdown，考虑到06/25 Market Recap里关于weekly bearish engulfing的统计，因此这个Head and Shoulders Top最终成立的可能性非常大，所以牛牛要小心了。当然，我个人通常的做法是会等几天以确认这是真的breakdown。

 

 

下面的图，提前公布一下，好让大家有个思想准备，希望我是错的。如果在今后几天内Head and Shoulders Top最终得到确认的话，这将是比June 2009 and Jan 2010都高一个层次的的correction，因此如果把03/06/2009 to 04/26/2010的这一轮牛市看作是5 wave up的话，那么我们现在至少应该是ABC correction，且不管price target如何，从时间上讲，min correction time could be Fib 38.2% from 03/06/2009 to 04/26/2010，这样算出来的时间就是10/02/2010，看起来非常漫长，因此牛牛要有思想准备。这个中间，顺便说，有两个时间区域，因为有multiple cycle date confluence，所以非常值得关注，一个是07/31 to 08/02，另一个是08/22 to 08/24，他们意味着top or bottom，目前还不清楚，暂且知道有这么回事就可以了。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: BE CAREFUL OF NASDAQ INTRADAY CUMULATIVE TICK

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了晚上要WOW，here’s the chart。我不明白怎么会这样，但是事实是前面8次WOW(06/25 Market Recap, 06/02 Market Recap, 05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap)的时候，大盘最迟到后天都sold off hard，因此牛牛be careful here。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	*SELL	0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: ChiOsc a little too low.
IWM	DOWN	*SELL	*Ascending Broadening Wedge breakdown, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP	SELL
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	DOWN	SELL
BOND	UP	BUY	Breakout but ChiOsc is way too high now.
EURO	DOWN
GOLD	UP		4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	UP
ENERGY	DOWN	SELL	*ChiOsc a little too low.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	UP	*SELL	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	*DOWN	SELL

oda

ddr

oda

哈, 座上沙发了.

usamonkey

X中国陆军

Bencat

cartier

happyface

thanks

try_again

Thanks

nanosensor

Ding!

vicvic

hillcrest

thanks for sharing!

tonyshen

navybean

Thanks a lot.

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!

zhyuan04

老大， NDX 指数是连跌8天，所以是不是可以说QQQQ也是连跌8天了？

回复 1# Cobra

t-k

hhli3

回复 1# Cobra


    Thanks for the hard work.

wxp