PFE's tanezumab failed - good for POZN

AGA7d

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) 2010-06-23 -- Yet another experimental drug heavily touted by Pfizer Inc. has foundered in advanced testing, raising worries about productivity problems at the world's biggest drugmaker.

Safety problems with potential osteoarthritis treatment tanezumab, quietly disclosed Wednesday evening, on Thursday triggered a drop in Pfizer shares and a burst of notes to investors from analysts concerned about the trend.

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That's the reason for pozn's rise today despite a sell-off for the big market. One less competitor for Vimovo.

Last month, another potential osteoarthritis drug by a French company was rejected by FDA.

There are many reasons to be optimistic on POZN.
1. The potential Europe approval on Vimovo will trigger a 25 mln payment to pozn, expected as early as next month.
2. The sale of Treximet is expected to rise in the 2nd Q.
3. The potential Vimovo sale milestone can trigger more bonus for pozn by AZN.
4. Large short position while the volume has significantly slowed (Volume 100 k for today 06-24, SI is about 4.7 or 4.4 million shares)
5. Another drug PA is in trial III, if successful, pozn will likely to receive more royalty than Treximet (18% royalty) and Vimovo (~10% royalty).

AGA7d

POZN has two approved drugs:
1. Treximet for migraine headache (100-150 mln sale/year)
2. Vimovo for osteoarthritis (not on market yet, can be 200 mln to 800 mln at US alone)

Also in pipeline:
PA32540, a Phase III clinical trial product, which is a combination of a proton pump inhibitor and aspirin for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients at risk for gastric ulcers.

If approved, PA will be another blockbuster drug after Vimovo.

Pozen is an expert in mixing two approved drugs into a better targeted drug. All above 3 are similar in combining two approved drugs.

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AGA7d

今天我又在网上转了一圈，只看到POZN的好消息，没有一样让我觉得有隐忧。
所以我维持原判，不大赚不卖。

哪位有疑问，我可以尽量解答。

我读过4家的评估，最熊的是Jeffrey's 的杨女士，她的目标价是10刀。她预测
的VIMOVO的顶峰销售额也最低，为每年两亿美元。最高的估计是8亿。现在有
倆竞争对手退出，所以销量该会靠上线而非下线。