*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALLY BULLISH
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- 04/15 income tax deadline, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.
- April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 13.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP COULD BE AROUND 04/11 TO 04/15
See 04/08 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: A STRONG EARNINGS OFF-SEASON USUALLY MEANS A WEAKER EARNINGS SEASON
See 04/09 Market Recap, the statistics about the Earnings Season plus the cycle analysis and plus too many bearish extremes accumulated in the table above, so my guess is that we’ll see typical sell on news in the coming earnings season.
今天又有new record。ISEE Equities Only Index record high了。348的意思,就是每3.48个call才有1个put,this is way too bullish。上次record high那么集中是在2007年的顶部。
ISEE Equities Only Index MA(10)的情况看一下。这个是比较常见的put call ratio的用法,所以这里贴出来给大家看看。
T2105 from Telechart,看一下,new high了,虽然这个high跟longer history比起来不算啥,不过好像最近几次new high后都是顶部。
下面是T2105的offical定义,有兴趣地可以看看。
T2105 High Low Logic Index
Developed by Norman Fosback, the Index is computed as the lesser of the number of new highs or new lows divided by the total number of issues traded. Daily or weekly NYSE data typically is used in the calculation.
The concept behind the indicator is that either a large number of stocks will reach new highs or a large number will establish new lows, but normally not both at the same time. Since the High Low Logic Index is the lesser of the two ratios, high readings are infrequent.
When a high indicator reading does occur, it signifies that market internals are inconsistent with many stocks reaching new highs at the same time that many stocks establish new lows. Such a condition is considered bearish for stock prices.
Extreme low indicator readings reveal a uniform market. They are considered bullish for stock prices.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance. |