03/01/2010 大盘回顾 （Why is the March 6th important?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.  0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top was confirmed. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *13 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *8 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Too high, topped? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *breakeven *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar 02/26 L *breakeven *Adjust stop loss. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM   CHINA   EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS   REITS   MATERIALS   *ChiOsc too high. ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL   ChiOsc too high. *Bearish reversal bar, could pullback. GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. *Black bar, could pullback. BOND Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE A BIGGER CORRECTION BUT NOT SURE IF THERE’S A NEW HIGH FIRST

 

See 02/26 Market Recap, according to II Survey, since too many people are expecting a correction, so the market would rebound huge before a real correction kicks in. So far we’ve got the huge rebound but the question is how high the rebound could go?

 

关于这个问题，现在我唯一的线索是时间。最近的报告，反反复复提到cycle turn date，特别是1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)的最后一个cycle due date – 03/08 (purple line)，我觉得发生反转的可能性最大。理由是根据Important highs and lows Calendar，历史上在03/06附近的转折点有很多：

1. 03/06/2009
2. 03/08/2006
3. 03/07/2005
4. 03/05/2004

根据Gann Theory，说明03/06附近是潜在的重要转折点。下面再看看Gann Emblem推算的结果。

1. The 360 degree from 03/06/2009 low is at 03/06/2010.
2. The 240 degree from 07/08/2009 low is at 03/07/2010.

从下面的图可以看到，蓝线和红线标示的Gann day几乎都是turning point，说明Gann day是有一定的道理的。也因此当蓝线和红线在03/06附近重合的时候，有理由相信，大盘反转的几率double。

 

 

下面的Gann Emblem图演示了是如何得出the 240 degree from 07/08/2009 low is at 03/07/2010的。看不懂，没关系，我也就是假装一下，其实也不懂。

 

 

此外也是Gann Theory，根据Solar Terms，03/06是惊蛰，也是potential turning point。

 

以上废话了那么多，其实就是想说，大盘如果涨到03/06，那03/06就很可能是top，大盘跌到03/06，那03/06就很可能是bottom。如果最终证明03/06是top的话，I expect a bigger correction to conform the past II Survey pattern (see 02/26 Market Recap for the chart)。至于market到03/06之前，能涨多高，会不会new high，I have no idea。

 

感觉很复杂是不是？其实操作上很简单，如果你follow了我的SPY ST Model的话，今天就该set stop loss to breakeven (see table above)，下面随便market怎么走了，right？

 

SHORT-TERM: MIXED SIGNALS BUT I BELIEVE THE BEARISH SIGNAL WILL ACT FIRST

 

短期，I’ve got 2 mixed signals，一个牛牛friendly，一个熊熊friendly，我的倾向是至少熊熊friendly的信号会先起作用，如果pullback幅度不大的话，并不影响牛牛friendly的信号。

 

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，这个对牛牛有利，可能是Head and Shoulders Bottom，text book target is 119.42，就是说库马同志一直祥林嫂的SPX 1200。

 

 

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，这个熊熊friendly，spike表示大家都too bullish (not afraid of risk, since Nasdaq stocks are higher beta stocks)，因此通常意味着top。这个信号的可靠度很高。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

harley

soha

harley

SOFA

harley

Where is everybody ... Or it is my lucky day ... I never even had bemch until today

lwmm

ding

soulvirus

thx

google

March 6 is Saturday

ddr

windy

Thanks

outer

thx

pig2006

happylux

Bencat

Billyboy

Thanks

Alchemist

sooners

1# Cobra


thanks

happyface

thanks

牛熊

oda

Thanks a lot

90ufo

thanks!
"看不懂，没关系，我也就是假装一下，其实也不懂。"------

"就是说库马同志一直祥林嫂的SPX 1200。"------hahaha!

顺便说一下, 库马老大,别生气了......