01/28/2010 大盘回顾 （NATV/NYTV Spiked Again）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: *Oversold. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *NADNV too high. BEARISH 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Topped again? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 01/27 S 1.9 x ATR(10) Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell 01/21 S *01/26 High *Adjust Stop Loss VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: *Breakdown from consolidation area, more downside ahead.  EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation? CANADA TSX 1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): Double Top, target $15.77. *TOADV oversold. 1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: *Oversold. I believe TSX will rebound soon. For intermediate-term, however, the Double Top is still in play. FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS 3.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Daily): ChiOsc is very oversold now. OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): *Black bar, could lead to a rebound. GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): On multiple support, could rebound soon. DOLLAR 3.1.0 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Confirmed Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout! BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION TARGET FOR INDU COULD BE AROUND 9727

 

No update. According to chart 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, the correction target could be around 9727.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE MORE CORRECTION AHEAD

 

今天SPY and QQQQ daily chart pattern都不好看，plus Nasdaq Total Volume to NYSE Total Volume ratio又spike了，因此可能more correction ahead。

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.

 

 

0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals.

 

 

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume.

 

 

明天，I’m not sure，有涨的可能，除了After Bell Quick Summary提到的6.1.1a Extreme CPC Readings Watch，由于CPC <= 0.81，明天有78%的机会收绿以外，1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)的cycle bottom如果作用还没完的话，明天应该还能涨点。此外最重要的是1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，VIX didn’t confirm the SPY new low plus lots of positive divergences。

 

 

明天如果又跌的话，熊熊要注意套利，理由有三：

 

下周一是二月的第一个交易日，自2000年以来8 out of 10 times INDU closed in green。

 

Very very bullish Monday，介个pattern继续有效。

 

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，明天new low，很可能介个Full Moon代表的是bottom。

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

surya

Thanks!

ypm968

bd

flash

first page

hutong9

abaqus

1st

Alchemist

ypm968

hifi

LadyLuck

WOW - great thanks!

h-1

happyface

thanks

nova

好文

Seawave

Thanks, Cobra

do you have any idea why the broad bank index is so strong these days?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/ca ... XLF,$SPX|B|A12,26,9

skipjack

thanks

源济

terranmn

xz214

yaobooyao

刚看完，估计沙发没了。

Bullish Monday 会不会有什么前提条件？ 比如大的市场环境是bullish (buy dip, mutual fund inflow, etc.)，如果买的动机和子弹都收起来了，甚至变天了，Monday /month begin 可能就没有开闸放水的行情了。

xiaoyaoxl

ding