01/22/2010 大盘回顾 （Not Yet）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in buy mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 8 are OVERSOLD

BULLISH 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV): Potential buy signal to be triggered. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: *Oversold. BEARISH 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: *INDU breakdown below strong support area, suspect SPX might follow. 01/22 Market Recap: *Climax Buying spiked again. CONCLUSION The selling was fierce, in this case, I’d like to see at least 3 of my favorite indicators becoming oversold before seriously considering catching falling knifes. 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Not yet. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Yes oversold. T2122 4 week New High/Low Ratio: Not yet. SO, NOT YET.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.) TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell 01/21 S Breakeven Sorry, forgot to mention this setup on 01/20. VIX MA ENV     *Long if VIX falls into it’s MA Envelope and SPY close > open.

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): *Rebound? Need follow-through to confirm. CANADA TSX 1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): *Double Top, target $15.77. FINANCIALS REITS OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): *Very oversold, could rebound soon. GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): *On multiple support, could rebound soon. DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Could be H&S Bottom in the forming. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION TARGET FOR INDU COULD BE AROUND 9727

 

最近一段时间的报告陆陆续续提到了一些非常reliable的top信号：

1. 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield
2. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume
3. 0.0.8 SPX:CPCE

虽然它们无法判断the top是short-term还是intermediate-term，不过从周四和周五的下跌猛烈程度来看，非常大的可能介是个intermediate-term top。

 

4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，根据相似性可以推断correction target是9727ish，大约9%的样子。

 

 

Climax Buying，连着2周spike（红棒棒），介个应该可以看作correction会持续几周的证据。

 

 

由于大幅下跌是在本周的II and AAII survey之后，因此最好等下周的survey结果。下面是本周的II and AAII Survey，供参考。基本上，本周的II还是very bullish。

 

 

  

SHORT-TERM: PAY ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL VIX BUY SIGNAL

 

Short-term，After Bell Quick Summary里已经说了，big sell off，第一次rebound多半会fail，而现在连第一次rebound都没有，因此还没跌完。当然由于ChiOsc is way too low，VIX看着也有反转的迹象，因此周一早盘是有反弹的可能的。

 

 

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，INDU已经击穿了强大的consolidation area，expect SPX to follow，介个也是还没有跌完的证据。

 

 

俺知道，很多牛牛现在关心的是啥时候有rebound。下面的两个条件如果有任何一个符合，then the rebound could be very close：

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，介个太panic了，因此周一如果能有out of BB reversal bar，那牛牛有希望。想buy dips的话，注意上面table里VIX MA ENV Setup的条件。

 

 

如果没有VIX MA ENV Setup的话，上面的table里列了三个必要条件。目前，只有一个符合，所以NOT YET。下面是图，for your conveniences。

 

2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing。

 

 

2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator。

 

 

T2122 4 week New High/Low Ratio。

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

rookie

joep

1# Cobra

ypm968

板凳

Bencat

impresario100

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周一 1/25/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：AAPL 季报及股价


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

碧海潮生

fead

thanks!

lwjnbtx

First page, thanks!

skipjack

thanks

碧海潮生

student009

Thanks!

股舞人生

infovis

谢老蛇。。。。。

jack3400

thnxs

acoust

First page,

开小差

thx,ding