11/03/2009 大盘回顾 （US$ Sharp Pullback?）

Cobra

Summary:

One more good news for bulls: US$ could pullback. If all those bullish signals still could not make the market rally huge then the primary wave 3 down could have started.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model		Short if 11/02 low is taken.		Officially in downtrend.
Reversal Bar
NYMO Sell	10/21 S	*Adjust Stop Loss	*10/30 High
VIX ENV

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: US$ COULD PULLBACK

 

今天的反弹比预期的弱，不过可能跟明天Fed Day有关，所以看明天吧。昨天的Market Recap都讲了，熊熊唯一的希望是6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch，可能有第3个Major Distribution Day。而so far其他信号都对牛牛有利：

1. 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，可能是cycle bottom。

2. 1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals，NDX有很多bottom信号。

3. 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，completely out of BB bar meant a bottom。

 

今天牛牛又有个good news，3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，黑棒棒意味着reversal，因此米金可能要跌。

 

3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)，不知道今天黄金的大涨是否跟预期明天Fed还要print money有关。不过下面的图可以看到，黄金这种涨法，可能意味着UUP的sharp pullback。这就是说commodity and stock都要涨。

 

3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min)，USO看着也很bullish，这从另一个侧面反映，可能明天Fed的announcement对米金不利，大约是继续印钱。

 

综上所述，虽然俺觉得intermediate-term应该有more pullback，不过实在在俺的图集上找不出跌的理由。换句话说，在这种情况下，market如果还是不能rally huge的话，那真的很可能the wave 3 down has started。Let's wait and see。

 

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

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