Dont buy RIMM

yaobooyao

If you are long term investor, don't buy RIMM,

It will become a $30 stock in 6 months.

sds

RIMM reminds me GRMN.

yaobooyao

RIMM reminds me GRMN.
sds 发表于 2009-11-3 18:05

Maybe even worse than GRMN...

CoolMax

I used to short RIMM long AAPL as trading pair.

yaobooyao

I used to short RIMM long AAPL as trading pair.
CoolMax 发表于 2009-11-3 18:08

The smartphone war is between iPhone  vs Google's Android enabled muti-vendor brands (MOT, some Asian brands will come in very soon),  Palm OS is good but too late.  iPhone is now the game ruler.

RIM's high end market share is hammered by iPhone,  when MOT's Droid debut, it will diminish the mid-low end market of RIM.

When iPhone get enough share in China, it will change the game rule, and by then, the H/W  only smartphone makers will be in dead water.  I want to ask the BlackBerry users,  ' What's your favourite application on your BlackBerry?', no one can answer even there only some hundreds of 'App' on BlackBerry.

Watch the same story about 'Pagers' in 199x, the same script this time.

ut1984

rimm这个公司 现在没有任何创新精神
纯属吃老本 去他们公司看看就知道了
老本能吃多久 不知道
可能未来的5-10年 被AAPL吃掉？

busywind

Thanks!

hbw

The smartphone war is between iPhone  vs Google's Android enabled muti-vendor brands (MOT, some Asian brands will come in very soon),  Palm OS is good but too late.  iPhone is now the game ruler.
...
yaobooyao 发表于 2009-11-3 18:35

RIMM有其他创新产品吗？

CoolMax

rimm这个公司 现在没有任何创新精神
纯属吃老本 去他们公司看看就知道了
老本能吃多久 不知道
可能未来的5-10年 被AAPL吃掉？
ut1984 发表于 2009-11-3 06:46 PM

加拿大公司的宿命？！
Like NT？

yaobooyao

加拿大公司的宿命？！
Like NT？
CoolMax 发表于 2009-11-3 18:57

如果你还记得我9月21号的旧帖，你就知道是什么人在领导这只鼹鼠了。。。

yaobooyao

rimm这个公司 现在没有任何创新精神
纯属吃老本 去他们公司看看就知道了
老本能吃多久 不知道
可能未来的5-10年 被AAPL吃掉？
ut1984 发表于 2009-11-3 18:46

保守的讲， 再过两个圣诞节。

svntn

You forgot about the corporate market. Blackberry is still the default corporate phone and I think the entry barrier is high for the competitors. I walked into a Radioshack store  last week and talked with the sales consultant (an Indian guy) about all the available smartphones (including Pre and IPhone). He told me Blackberry is the only one that can do "pop" e-mail. All others can only do web based e-mail. I don't know the value of those "applications" you mentioned, but for a communication device, I only care about voice and e-mail.  

5# yaobooyao

rnhoo

12# svntn

I do not think BB is the only one that can "pop" email. Iphone is very good to be used with exchange server. Not to mention wm phones.

yaobooyao

You forgot about the corporate market. Blackberry is still the default corporate phone and I think the entry barrier is high for the competitors. I walked into a Radioshack store  last week and talked ...
svntn 发表于 2009-11-3 20:05

I have exactly the same argue with the guy on Google Finance 2 days before RIMM ER was released,  nobody is wrong I should say, only market share number can tell who is in favor. What I can say is among the smartphone market growth over past 12 months, 50% is eaten by iPhone.

And from my experience I can tell you,  pop email on mobile phone is not a technical barrier at all, even some open source product can do that. Today's market, this is not the selling point to end users.  Plus,  RIM's BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES) is just bull shit, it's extra cost to corporate not advantage.

BTW,  Verizon is the biggest Service Provider for RIM in terms of revenue(28%),  now Verizon is going to work with MOTOROLA on the Doriod.  Imagine this, if over next quarter, Verizon's ER shows significant market penetration with Doriod, what will happen to RIM's stock price that day?


I did my own profoma financial analysis on RIM based on my data,  $30~40 is the best I can get from its forward EPS basis.

svntn

since you are so confident on your own "numbers", mind sharing your projected top line growth rate of RIMM for next quarter? did you count corporate clients? The link below provides a sensible comparison between Blackberry and IPhone. As long as RIMM can hold its ground in business world, which is its core market, it is still a "growth" stock.


"Personal vs. Business Functionality
Companies run Blackberry server products. From the connectivity to Microsoft Exchange server and the ease of mobile e-mail, the Blackberry is far superior to the iPhone. Blackberry was created with business use in mind. While it may have a slower CPU, the Blackberry makes up for it with its office applications. There is a reason it’s nicknamed “the Crackberry.” Have you ever seen a sales guy not fiddling with or talking on his Blackberry phone? Also, when it comes to security on the Blackberry, well, let’s just say it’s secure enough for President Obama to use. Official statement from Blackberry as to the security:

The BlackBerry® Enterprise Solution has been approved for storing and transmitting sensitive data by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as government organizations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Austria, Australia and New Zealand.

The iPhone has more storage, a faster CPU and more RAM. All great attributes for playing games. As I’ve witnessed at work, the iPhone is the anti-productivity phone. Don’t pretend like you are holier than thou and don’t spend countless work hours downloading apps and playing the new Iron Man game or any of the thousand other games.

Recently, the iPhone became compatible with Exchange Server, which was a huge step toward integrating with business. The iPhone has made great strides in favor of business use. Many businesses are making the switch and many handy applications are specific to certain industries, such as medical apps for drug reference or symptom tracking that are gaining popularity with those in the medical field. However, there are still security concerns with the phone, though those are being addressed. It also doesn’t help the iPhone for business that it’s only available on AT&T in the United States. Companies like to price shop and AT&T’s service isn’t that great in all areas.

When I get a phone, I don’t want to wait for the patch that will make it secure: I want it to come secure. That hurts the iPhone for business use at its current stage. Apple is making strides in the security department, as all new iPhones come equipped with MobileMe, which allows you to find your lost iPhone as well as remotely wipe its memory clean.

As for personal usage, the Blackberry is a sturdy and reliable phone. But due to the wide range of applications and amazing graphical interface and selection of games, the iPhone wins the personal use battle by a wide margin.

So this category is a draw. Blackberry wins for business use and security, iPhone wins for personal use. "
"

http://www.wired.com/geekdad/200 ... hone-vs-blackberry/

14# yaobooyao

yaobooyao

since you are so confident on your own "numbers", mind sharing your projected top line growth rate of RIMM for next quarter? did you count corporate clients? The link below provides a sensible compari ...
svntn 发表于 2009-11-3 20:39

Sorry, I can't share it at the moment...

Anyway, good luck.

svntn

so, this is not a friendly discussion, but a I-am-superior-than-you-and-if-you-want-to-argue-then-sorry-my-arguement-is-secret type of bulls*?

16# yaobooyao

yaobooyao

so, this is not a friendly discussion, but a I-am-superior-than-you-and-if-you-want-to-argue-then-sorry-my-arguement-is-secret type of bulls*?

16# yaobooyao
svntn 发表于 2009-11-3 20:59

The model I've used is a prop model,  I can't quote it without permission. That's the reason.

svntn

then that is all right. RiMM's current PE is 15, market cap is $33.9B. Latest Q over Q earnings growth was 20% and margin is 25%. NOK's PE is 13, market cap is $47.5B, latest Q earnings growth was -46% and margin is 15%.

If as you said RIMM will fall to a $40 stock (your higher end number), assume no growh this quarter (highly unlikely because last quarter RIMM grew at the smart-phone market rate and held its market share), the its PE will be 10, cheaper than NOK? It just doesn't make sense.

18# yaobooyao

yaobooyao

then that is all right. RiMM's current PE is 15, market cap is $33.9B. Latest Q over Q earnings growth was 20% and margin is 25%. NOK's PE is 13, market cap is $47.5B, latest Q earnings growth was -46 ...
svntn 发表于 2009-11-3 21:30

For RIM's stock price, momentum is the key driver, if its market growth momentum & competitiveness vs key players is waning,  then the stock pricing model has to be shifted dramatically, which means volatile stock price adjustment by the market players, the market can be way oversold on RIM if something less attractive emerging. That's why doing valuation is very not a fun game at all.

If you ask why the Citi analyst lowered his RIM estimates from buy to sell ($100 to $50),  he will give you no answer, nothing changes that fast in couple of month. This guy should be fired!

I am guy from technical side to finance side,  from my understanding (plus a lot of my RIM friends' feelings), this company is on the wrong direction with smartphone's future roadmap.  That's the key fundamental element which enforce my financial calculation. All I know is when the leader has no vision, his army will be trapped and killed.

Let's see its ER after Christmas shopping season, that's the crucial point to confirm any further projection.