本帖最后由 多吉 于 2009-11-1 14:00 编辑
如果美元崩溃、如果危机再回头
说美元会崩溃,现在看来可能有一点天方夜谭的味道。。。
QQQ? 发表于 2009-10-27 08:37 AM 
悲观意见
Faber - in a decade, dollar will fall to zero
Dan Weil, MoneyNews October 29, 2009
“The dollar, which recently dropped to a 14-month low of 0.67 euro before recently recovering, will ultimately fall to zero, says financial guru Marc Faber.
“Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, told Bloomberg, ‘It will go to a value of exactly zero eventually, but not right now.’
“The dollar will drift for a while, with occasional rebounds, Faber says.
“‘The other currencies aren’t much better either. They are also paper currencies. But I think that against gold, it will continue to depreciate.’
“And when can we expect the dollar to be worthless?
“‘Looking at Mr. Obama and his administration, it should already be there,’ Faber says.
“‘But I think it will take roughly 10 years until people really realize that the fiscal position of the US is a complete disaster.’
“Faber maintains that in about 10 years, 50% of US tax revenue will be used just to cover interest payments on the government debt.
“‘That is unsustainable,’ he says. ‘Then you really are forced to print money.’”
乐观意见
Financial Times: Don’t write off the dollar
Donald Rissmiller, October 29, 2009
“The bear case for the dollar may be well-known, but there are a number of reasons why it seems too early to bet on a collapse in the US currency in 2010, says Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas Research.
“First, he says, as long as floors remain in housing and consumer confidence, the US economic recovery is sustainable. ‘Confidence eased slightly in October but remains above its recent low,’ he notes.
“Second, he believes the saving/investment equation is not yet sufficiently imbalanced to suggest a dollar crisis is imminent.
“Furthermore, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 100% level typically considered problematic. ‘While there has been some talk of an eventual US debt downgrade, the timeframe still appears to be several years away.’
“Mr Rissmiller also argues the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, while employing tools such as paying interest on reserves, leaving its balance sheet elevated. ‘There’s a lot of room for tighter US monetary policy before policy becomes ‘tight’,’ he says.
“Also, foreign central banks could intervene in support of the dollar, given the global push for exports as a solution to the economic downturn.
“Finally, pegged and semi-pegged currency countries, such as China, have little incentive to disrupt the current trade system. ‘Without inflation in developing Asia, there’s little need to make drastic changes now,’ he says.”
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