Summary:
A follow-through is needed to confirm the short-term pullback.
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TREND |
MOMENTUM |
EMOTION |
COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. |
Long-term |
Up |
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Disbelieve |
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Intermediate |
Up |
Neutral |
No argue |
NYSI not confirming the up trend. |
Short-term |
Up |
Neutral |
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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
INSTRUCTION |
STOP LOSS |
Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
ST Model |
10/14 L |
*Adjust Stop Loss |
*10/08 Low |
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Reversal Bar |
10/05 L |
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10/16 Low |
*Stopped out with gain. |
VIX ENV |
10/06 L |
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10/19 Low |
*Stopped out with gain. |
NYMO Sell |
10/21 S |
*Short intraday |
*10/21 High |
Winning Rate: 59%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 4.9
Very risky trade but occasionally may catch the exact market top. |
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INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE
SHORT-TERM: A FOLLOW THROUGH IS NEEDED TO CONFIRM A SHORT-TERM PULLBACK
今天收盘前的下跌还不能说明什么问题,关键要看明天是否有follow-through。1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min),1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min),正好停在重要的support上,并且符合了Fib 23.6 minimum retracement target的要求,因此不排除the pullback was over了。
1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals,overall,俺还是看more pullback,特别是QQQQ黑棒棒的预言,应该没完。只是不sure是否more pullback已经开始了呢,还是说还在盘整。见图中蓝色圈圈,两种可能都还是有的,因此again,要看明天。
1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min),明天又有个cycle turn date due,因此也是很难说是turn up or turn down。
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min),介个对牛牛有利,ChiOsc way too low,所以明天早盘有反弹的可能。
3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min),lots of positive divergences,米金随时都有反弹的可能,介个对熊熊有利。
INTERESTING CHARTS:
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch,介个setup,周末的报告提过,今天confirm sell short,不过risky,因此stop loss非常紧,见trend table。
2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily),VIX dropped out its ENV then rose back into it,是sell short信号,不过俺的back test显示介个setup在intermediate-term uptrend的情况下,效果不佳,因此俺不会follow。这里就是提一下,让大家知道有介么一回事儿。
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