10/20/2009 大盘回顾 （QQQQ Black Bar Again）

Cobra

Summary:

Could be very close to a short-term top.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Up	Neutral	No argue	NYSI not confirming the up trend.
Short-term	Up	Neutral	Yes!
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model	10/14 L		10/06 Low
Reversal Bar	10/05 L		10/16 Low
VIX ENV	10/06 L	*Adjust stop loss	*10/19 Low
NYMO Sell		Must be a red day next day to confirm the sell signal		Winning Rate: 59%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 4.9 Very risky trade but occasionally may catch the exact market top.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

维持1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)标示的target。要注意的是SPX离trend line以及Fib 50 target 1121不远了。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO A SHORT-TERM TOP

 

今天高开最后收红，因此是个Reversal day，下面的图是自3月份以来的所有reversal day的情况。看起来此后consolidation or pullback的几率高些。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，black bar的两个预言，大家应该熟悉了：1. 低开明天但不一定收红。2. 离short-term top不远了。

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，明天如果收红的话会触发sell signal，介个setup，周末的报告提过，risky，但是运气好的话，可以抓住大顶。

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，如果真的还有pullback的话，measured move应该是$1.45左右的跌幅，可能正好能把SPY的第13个空补了。最近大家应该注意到了，SPY so far不能hold第14个空，所以其实补了第13个空比较利于上涨啦。

 

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Diver

Summary:

Could be very close to a short-term top.




TREND
MOMENTUM
EMOTION
COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.

Long-term
Up

Disbelieve


Intermediate
Up
Neutral
No a ...
Cobra 发表于 2009-10-20 20:09

fmln06

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墙头草

DDDD

Langtaojin

Thanks!!!

frank

reks

Must read. Thanks..

牛熊

First page

bendzhao

thanks, let's see