10/06/2009 大盘回顾 （CPCE too low）

Cobra

Summary:

CPCE is too low. The previous 2 times when CPCE was this low the market wasn't up much thereafter.

Could be a Cup and Handle pattern formed on the SPY intraday chart.

	TREND	MOMENTUM		COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	*Up	Neutral
SETUP	DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
Index ST Model I				Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now.
Index ST Model II	10/06	*Move stop loss	10/06 High	Short position initiated on 09/30.
VIX ENV	10/06	*Set stop loss	10/05 Low	Long position initiated on 10/06.
Reversal Bar	10/06	*Set stop loss	10/05 Low	Long position initiated on 10/05.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE MARKET MAY CONSOLIDATE FOR AWHILE BEFORE PULLING BACK

 

今天要说的都集中在下面介幅图上。

1. CPCE closed at 0.47，way too low。前两次介么low，大盘都是盘整一段时间后pulled back。所以如果此后几天是consolidation的话，牛牛要小心。俺目前比较倾向于介个推断。

2. 俺没有证据说pullback结束了，也没有证据说大盘不会创新高。纯TA角度讲，09/23 high没破，那还是down trend。那，到那时，证明熊熊又错了，不是太晚了嘛。介个，就是俺的洗桶的好处了，见上面的表格，长短结合，真要是09/23 high is taken了，那介一轮，由于short-term的setup，dip也算是buy到了，是吧？

3. 不排除这两天的反弹是back test broken trend line。0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，这里有根更大的trend line，画的人更多些，不过介条trend line并没有3点validated。Anyway，既使是介根trend line，也没有decisively broken，因此也是有back test的嫌疑的。总之，熊熊还有点点希望。当然，声明一下，俺不是trend line的fan，关于support/resistance，俺更看重horizontal line，有讨论Here哈。

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，介个图比较牛牛friendly，可能是Cup with Handle pattern，target $110.39。

 

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

Aeiou

safa

yvonekev1

1st page.  Thanks.

pig2006

Thanks Cobra!

pig2006

Wow, safa!

PacificLegend

oldfox

temujin

thanks

abaqus

first page

ByStander

First page

wnd4

thanks

Diffusion

like2swing

1st page. thanks

live111

another gap unfilled?

simonxp

MtlJaysFan

　Ｔｈａｎｋs a lot

Diffusion

当然，声明一下，俺不是trend line的fan，关于support/resistance，俺更看重horizontal line，有讨论Here哈
Cobra 发表于 2009-10-6 21:22

en, 原来如此

xnz

bucks

stockgirl

First page! Thank you very much!