10/02/2009 大盘回顾 （The Primary Wave 3 Down?）

Cobra

Summary:

The primary wave 3 down may have started according Elliott Wave International.

CPCE held above trend line for 3 days, could be a confirmation of an intermediate-term top.

SPX pullback target could be around 875 on the intermediate-term.

Short-term buy on reversal bar model will be triggered if SPX could close in green next Monday.

VIX daily black bar argues for a short-term rebound but the breakout of the weekly Bullish Falling Wedge is "bear" friendly.

	TREND	MOMENTUM		COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down	Neutral
SETUP	DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
Index ST Model I				Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now.
Index ST Model II	09/29	Sell next open	09/29 High	Short position initiated on 09/30.
VIX ENV		Watch		Long signal could be triggered soon.
Reversal Bar		*Watch		*Long if green Monday (Risky)

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CPCE TOP SIGNAL MAYBE CONFIRMED

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，根据Elliott Wave International的说法，可能惨烈的primary wave 3 down已经开始了。他们的理由如下：

1. Four of Three一般是反转的地方。图上看，SPX是过了点，但是INDU正好在介个位置，大家应该还记得俺的1.2.0 INDU Leads Market吧？

2. Primary wave 2的反弹，从时间上讲，正好是Primary wave 1 down的0.382。

 

以上仅供参考，俺看不了那么远，不过2.8.0 SPX:CPCE已经在trend line上3天了，介是最近没有过的，因此可能算是confirm intermediate-term top了。

 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，如果真是intermediate-term top的话，那text book target of a broken Bearish Rising Wedge，就是蓝色虚线那里。俺猜，875最有可能。

 

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights，信号的总体情况，有空看一下。Short-term有点oversold，Intermediate-term全是sell了，breadth则还是超买。

 

SHORT-TERM: BUY ON REVERSAL BAR MODEL WILL BE TRIGGERED IF SPX COULD CLOSE IN GREEN NEXT MONDAY

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，红棒棒plus oversold（尤其是最下面的NYMO，可靠性很高）plus Index ST Model I依然没有short signal，所以如果周一能够收绿的话，那介是个long setup，target $104。

 

介个是上面提到的setup的back test，wining rate有71%，还不错。不过，在趋势改变的过渡期，风险很大的说。

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，黑棒棒也支持至少短期反弹的说法。不过，2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly)，比较熊，breakout Bullish Falling Wedge，可能会去37。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)，连着2个reversal bar （黑棒棒加空心红棒棒）外加可能是back test broken trend line，所以油可能会跌。Intermediate-term，俺看跌油。

always

SAFA, FIRST TIME!

大牛Steve

抢到大沙发！

abaqus

1# Cobra


Frist Page

lazbug

thanks and ding

happyface

thanks a lot

Lionking

Thanks, Laoda!

It does smell differently this time...next week will be key.

Laoda, where can I find your distribution/accumulation chart? What are MMs doing now?

jackyking

jackyking

jackyking

jackyking

jackyking

jackyking

jackyking

jackyking

121212128

谢谢老大！！

金牛银熊

wiggler

3x

bayliner1979

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