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介个空大了点儿，有可能不补。介里有点小统计，好像看反弹。
Historically, the futures have gapped down -1% or more on Payroll Report days 12 times, and they closed higher than the open 8 times, with an overall average return of +1.2%.
It has only happened three other times when the S&P lost at least -2% the day before (06/07/02, 03/07/08 and 12/05/08). By Tuesday, the S&P was higher each time, gaining at least +2.3% at the best point each time, and losing no more than -1.7% at the worst.
Chart B: Liquidity Inflows and Outflows
Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action. If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up.
Liquidity inflows dropped sharply yesterday and fell to our support line. We expect the inflowing liquidity to fall lower which means lower price points in the market. Although falling, Liquidity is still positive so it would not be unusual to see extreme volatility and whipsawing. (Past comments: This remains a high reading, so we could see some unusually high volatility in the markets when profit taking starts to come into play. ... yesterday, the profit taking was clear so we are in that high volatility arena now.)
Chart C: Institutional Accumulation/Distribution
The Institutional Investors we had our first day of Institutional Investor Distribution since July 15th.
Institutional Investors were in Distribution with the Sell/Buy spread increasing. Institutional buying fell, and Institutional selling increased. (Previous comments: Note that Institutional Buying still has a Negative Divergence between the August peak and last week. Institutions are getting uncomfortably close to going into Distribution.)
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*** Conclusion on the above charts A to C: Liquidity is still at a high rate but was outflowing yesterday. Prior to yesterday, we have been pointing out the following: "Do note that Institutional Selling is in an up trend and Institutional Buying is in a technical down trend. As we mentioned last week, this is an indication that Institutions are quietly stepping up their profit taking." Yesterday, Institutions ramped up their profit taking with their Selling making another higher/high. Our premise has been to never go against Institutional Investors. We have no way of knowing if they will remain in Distribution, but as long as they remain in Distribution we recommend that you be in cash.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-10-2 08:21 AM
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发表于 2009-10-2 08:21 AM
