本帖最后由 股帝 于 2009-8-24 16:22 编辑
The crisis that has been affecting almost every household the last two years is unique in the sense that, it's the first modern world global crisis. In other words, what was transpiring in front of our eyes was history making. Even as today, after the Fed and the US government declared that, the worst of the financial crisis was over, things are still unsettled. With the unemployment rate refused to bend its head, I am sure that, security is the most demanding but unfortunately, the least available commodity in the world at this moment.
Looking back, the bubble generated by excessive credit was the culprit of this crisis. The burst of the bubble caused the collapse of the consumer spending and thus dragged the economy into recession. In turn, it's the deteriorating economic situation that has dragged the credit market and financial system into further turmoil. For those who have cash cushion and do not have heavy debt exposure, they will come out of this crisis, potentially as big winners, IF, they can avoid making costly mistakes again, and invest wisely as both the economy and the stock market are moving away from, hopefully, its darkest moment.
Unless you do not believe the economy will recover, otherwise, it would be foolish to not recognize that, commodity price will eventually steam ahead again in a not very distant future. As always, simple effect of supply and demand will dictate the future price of commodities of all sorts. And the balance will eventually shift to the demand side, unless you believe that the world population will simply stop consuming forever. As for gold, I am quite concerned about the seasonally correction phase and I am very hesitating right now to start my gold positions.
The stock market has been in a rallying mode for 5 months now based on the hope that, the economy is turning around, and the reality that, hot money injected by the Fed is pouring into the market. Looking back at the past 30 years of US history(not too long, isn't it?), the prosperity of the US fortune was powered by one bubble after the other. And I am sure that, some kind of bubble will be blown again this time.
One element I can see missing from this economic recovery theme is, besides the greenback injection, what could propel the economic recovery this time around? With about one third of the wealth being destroyed and as the baby boomer aging, counting on a quick strong comeback of consumer spending does not seem to be too realistic.
While we are busy digging ourselves into the stock market, it's always important to take a pause and look around to ensure that, we are not digging ourselves a hole again. The recent post by iamwym, "散户的经验积累和其他", does provide some very good advice on how to always take some money off the table and put it somewhere else, even under your mattress.
The old saying is always true: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me! Unfortunately, the stock market has the capability of fooling you many times.
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发表于 2009-8-24 03:21 PM
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发表于 2009-8-24 03:28 PM
