Be careful out there, folks

股帝

What we are seeing recently is basically a quick drop,  then a quick bounce that would kill more shorts and trap more longs. Once that is done, I would expect to see a repeat of the pattern again in a short term basis.

Until late Sept, when people worry that, the train is leaving the station and they will miss the train unless they get in right now, right here. Then, we would see a more meaningful correction that will potentially form a solid foundation for a more powerful and extended midterm uptrend that would potentially bring the S&P to 1200 by year end. Some folks have already called for a Dow 14000 in 2 years.

I have no trouble believing that, both the Dow and S&P will go higher from here. However, I don't buy the story line that, this train would leave the station and never return. A straight up from this point on is too shaky and will indeed bring us more dangers down the road.

Therefore, I am still holding 50% cash for now and patiently waiting for the right opportunities. The only thing I will buy right now, even if I make a move, would be solid valued stocks with good dividend. Other than that, I would not deploy my cash at this point.

Oil will go higher into the 80s range. Owning oil stocks, I think, is quite safe at this point. A lot of folks get burned by UNG as I can see from this board. I don't think the natural gas price is done for its slide yet, and thus I would not buy into that sector for now. Over production is the right word to use for natural gas now.

Folks, without a severe inflation right now, cash in your pocket does not lose its value. It's a illussion the WS crooks try to get you back into the game by telling you that, your money will lose value if you don't join the party.

Over committing yourself into the stock market at this point is dangerous in the sense that, you are facing a very corrupted financial system with the backing of the Fed. Sometimes, you rather to be a fool holding cash than a fool joining the party at the wrong time, regardless if you believe if this is the bear rally or the beginning of a cyclical bull market.

Be careful out there, folks.

dara

I do not believe the inflation story at all. Look at California, 11.9% people do not have a job(the real number will be much higher because many lost jobs long time ago).

Watching yesterday night's tv news, kaiser prepares cutting 1200 more soon, Fremont muni(5000+ employees) could be shutdown.

I did not hear people get much bonus this year either,

Where is inflation coming from?

vinceyin

thank you

layschips

you are showing us the real gold, Your Majesty

WildWolf

happyface

Wow, You are so great.

trueself

1# 股帝


thanks!

jc200900

股帝码字辛苦了。不过，个人以为oil下半年一般会熊，明年3月入市为佳。UNG再熬一两个月就该到底了。

金牛银熊

恐慌小猪

thomasdic2000

辛苦了．

black

What we are seeing recently is basically a quick drop,  then a quick bounce that would kill more shorts and trap more longs. Once that is done, I would expect to see a repeat of the pattern again in a ...
股帝 发表于 2009-8-21 16:22

thanks.

swimminginstock

xiaochong

谢谢股帝！！！

colderdown

I won't bet on inflation and I won't bet on long oil either. I warned guys here UNG would go below $12 a while ago. That's the damn only short gave me some profit so far.

rosyrosy

Ding!

dara

The past week is trading like A gu in the begin of August.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.SS;range=3m

a big down day, then up several days in a row to break previous high.

hbw

英文彩也飞扬

RedCedar

谢谢股帝