Turkey Analysis of UNG (请给小钻）

buctusa

I think it is good time to start some positions at UNG for the mid-term play
. UNG at $13.5 is a strong support and should be MM's G spot. YMYD.


Pro:

1. Oil/Natural Gas price ratio is extremely high in history. With current
oil price, the equivalent natural gas price is around $11 per MMBtu.But
today natural gas spot price is only $3.6 per MMBtu.

2.Natural gas rig count dropped to 6.5-year low. With current natural gas
price, more rigs will be closed. With reduced supply, the natural gas price
will go up.
http://www.reuters.com/article/r ... USN2237897020090522

3.The summer is coming. Most power plant can use natural gas as alternative
to replae fuel to generate electricity. With high oil/natural gas price
ratio, power plant will use more natural gas and thereby drive the deman.

4. The hurricane season is coming. Any hurricane news will pop up natural
gas price.

5. The recent extremey high transaction volumes indicates some big MM is
building positions at UNG. And UNG's recent volume pattern is similar to USO
's when USO built its bottom.

6. From my daily checking from UNG fund website, the fund is creating new
shares everyday with big amount of new shares. It means the demand for UNG
shares is far more than the supply. It is a bullish signal.

7. UNG does not benefit at all from inflation speculation. But every dog has
its day. Thus, UNG will follow up.

Con:

Natural gas supply is still too much. Also, the liquified natural gas (LNG)
from foreign country is adding more pressure to natural gas price. The weak
economy is driving down the demand for natural gas.

Also, contango for natural gas is still severe.

buctusa

It seems some MM also saw my turkey analysis. But I will not sell my 1000 UNG bot at 13.50

熊皮马甲

snowwolf229

thomasdic2000

greenbean

1# buctusa

what about the NG contango? It has been one of the reason that killed the price of UNG.

trueself

1# buctusa
顶！我死守阵地

trueself

It seems some MM also saw my turkey analysis. But I will not sell my 1000 UNG bot at 13.50
buctusa 发表于 2009-6-4 12:53

进点比我强，我是14.XX

buctusa

Today UNG has its record volume in history. Expect that its volume will be over 70 million...........

Today might be its real bottom..................

AMY08

说得好，13.6进了点．

dividend_growth

Today UNG has its record volume in history. Expect that its volume will be over 70 million...........

Today might be its real bottom..................


buctusa 发表于 2009-6-4 14:38

如果USO是个先例的话，最大量不代表是底。

buctusa

多谢老大指点！ That is just my wishful thinking.....................

如果USO是个先例的话，最大量不代表是底。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-4 14:53

livein

thanks

kkkk

dara

do not like it.

It looks like it never rebounded.

layschips

support!

xiaofengfeng

My average price is close to 15, still holding.

lwjnbtx

Ding, seems very speculative, price up n down too much, not for the weak heart.

tenteddies

Ding, seems very speculative, price up n down too much, not for the weak heart.
lwjnbtx 发表于 2009-6-4 19:01

agree

lucymvz

thanks