Very very bearish

swordevil

Yesterday there was an earthquake in the bond market:

1)10 year T note widened by 17 bps.
2)2/10 spread is record high.
3)mortgage widened a whooping 42 bps in a single day

The monetary policy of the central bank is failing. Three things will happen from here:

1) US government needs to boost tax rate to mitigate huge deficit, which will destroy the economy.
2) US government needs to monetize another 500-1000 billion debt, further increase the long term borrowing cost.
3) US government realizes it cannot fight against market gravity and unwinds liquidity (highly unlikely) to protect dollar, sending the market to abyss.

The Fed is officially running out of options now. Meanwhile, there is still 2000-3000 billion dollar losses to be realized in the next a few years. History is being made in front of our eyes.

ultimate

thanks!

ychen222

美国是自由资本主义经济，国债不应该是主体，前半年国债涨的主要原因是主体经济出问题，钱只好跑到安全的国债，这本身是不正常状态，现在国债只是恢复正常，股市和垃圾债目前也显然在上升通道。从长远看，美国自由经济好，国家税收才能上来，国债才有基本面上的支撑，否则只好逼得老美穷兵黩武了。从外资角度看，美国经济好，才能买东西输出美元，外国才有钱买国债。以老美的分量，依赖外资行不通。现在房市的最大威胁是失业，而不是房贷利率。
总之我不悲观。

xiaofengfeng

:lol

sniffer

1# swordevil
Stunning..  Panic is coming?

RR12

美国的经济就是一借钱消费经济，　短期能好起来？　做你的春秋大梦吧

soulvirus

thanks

snowwolf229

sniffer

3# ychen222

又见血了，一针

rightonmoney

如果经济可以因为消费者的信心而真的由衰退走出，不是真正改变基本面的话，就不会有经济危机了！

huaxue09

美国没那么容易垮，欧洲比美国状况差那么多，不也挺好？经济发展的核心是技术创新，仍然在美国，只要看有多少超一流高科技公司，500强在美国，就可见一斑，信用泡沫这一部分到底对美国经济有多大影响，我不认为足以使美国经济崩溃，到底结果如何估计很多经济学家都有很多争论。

dara

guys, do not be too bearish, good for yourself.

money is waiting outside to buy.

RR12

money is waiting for what? Suck's rally end or W bottom? Which one makes sense!

RR12

欧洲很好吗？　我看海啸快来了，　奥地利，　西班牙，　东欧，最后是英国　一个接一个破产，　国债变废纸

CoolMax

呵呵，大牛可以说，这正好说明是牛市的开始。
去看看2003-2007的债券Yield吧。

dara

money is waiting for what? Suck's rally end or W bottom? Which one makes sense!
RR12 发表于 2009-5-28 12:36

Money is waiting for buy, LOL.

With the interest so low for whatever reasons, money will come back to high risk investment.

长叶草

现在的股市不管消息面，想涨坏消息也涨，想跌好消息也跌，谁知道呢

Jennyahwu

who knows, follow gs

cartier

cheesecake