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Summary:
Could be more pullback next Tuesday. SPX 878 is the key to watch if the pullback does happen.
From seasonality statisitcs, Wednesday will be the 2nd most bullish day in May.
Very short-term neutral to overbought plus Memorial day后的第一天往往比较bearish，因此周二有继续pullback的可能。
7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change，如果周二真的回调的话，必须low过SPX 878才能证明bear is stronger。
周三，顺便说，根据seasonality，是the 2nd most bullish day in May。
其他没啥说的，intermediate-term暂时维持对牛牛不利的看法，详见05/21/2009 大盘回顾 （Follow Through）。
1.1.1 Nasdaq Composite (Weekly)，看着比较bearish，连着3个reversal bar。
OEX/Equity Spread from www.sentimentrader.com，跟俺的2.8.2 Normalized CPCI:CPCE类似，如果代表大户的OEX put/call ratio和Equity only put/call ratio spread很大的话，往往intermediate-term的前景不是很好。
3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield，突破了。很多同学坚信党和政府会给俺们带来一个大牛市，问题是让股市继续涨的话，bond yield大概会涨到天上去（啥？为啥？大牛市啊，谁还买bond？那bond就会跌，yield就会涨哈），这样长期mortgage rate会很高，房地产如何复苏？Bellow is a comment form www.stocktiming.com，just for your reference。
30 Year Yield: Market forces want higher yields even as the Fed is trying to work 30 year mortgages down to "a target" of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed's buying for the sole purpose of driving rates down, makes this an "interfered-with or manipulated" market. As the Fed tries to drive down rates to below 4.5%, they are creating a bond bubble that will have a bad ending. *** On April 29th, we started mentioning the probability that the 30 year yields would move up to 41.45. On Friday, May 8th., 41.45 was hit on a spike up that took us even higher with a closing of 42.61.
Yesterday, the 30 year yields jumped up again and closed at 43.13. This was above both long term resistance levels. The Fed still has over 250 billion to use in trying to keep yields and mortgages down ... we wish you luck, Ben.
Institutional Buying and Selling Trending from www.stocktiming.com，again just for your reference。
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-5-23 09:57 PM
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发表于 2009-5-23 09:59 PM
