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发表于 2009-5-22 05:08 PM
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本帖最后由 Kami 于 2009-5-22 18:11 编辑
This is called "sometime it is truth, sometime it is a lie". If the Fed repeatedly says the economy is good, good, very good, nobody would believe it. At certain intervals (especially at times when there is enough cushion to sustain a pull back -- such as now), the Fed needs to say something true (to save its credibility and also to save a stairway for future uses). Anyway, scenario 1 -- the market crushes afterwards, then the Fed can claim credit for correct prediction, and at some time in the future, when the Fed jumps out to say it is bottom, there will be followers to push stock prices higher; scenario 2 -- the market continues to rise, everybody is happy, who cares what the Fed said; scenario 3 -- the market goes down a little bit (somebody thought - hey, maybe the Fed is right this time); then reverses and moves higher (somebody second-thought - hey, the Fed never told us the truth, maybe this time it is creating opportunities for MM to accumulate positions, the market never lies, I am in.); and then goes down again relentlessly (Wow, somebody third-thought - hey, the Fed is finally right, I better liscen to it the next time). Just a wide guess, do not take it seriously. Personally, I do not think one Fed speech or market view will change anything but do think the third possibility has more winning chances.  |
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