05/21/2009 大盘回顾 （Follow Through）

Cobra

Summary:

Could be more rebound at least tomorrow morning.

More signals confirming an intermediate-term top.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down*	Neutral

 

今天的下跌是对昨天的Bearish Reversal的follow-through，with more intermediate-term sell signals triggered and more potential topping signals，形势看起来对牛牛不利。Very short-term，由于oversold plus positive divergence，因此明天至少早盘有继续反弹的可能。

 

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，明天早盘可能反弹的主要依据。Noticed a potential Double Top could be in the forming，当然，任何chart pattern，在没有breakout之前都不能作为看牛或者看熊的理由。

 

 

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights，信号的总体情况看一下，trend following indicators全是卖信号了，不管是short-term还是intermediate-term，而momentum indicator还是deadly neutral，所以expect more pullback ahead。1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships，1501 stocks price down volume down，这在bear market是continuation的pattern，因此也是说more pullback。

 

2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio，double confirming line今天终于破了，confirm market topped。这个信号自2007年以来只错过一次（04/20/2009 Market Recap: The rally might be over），不过那一次，没有2.8.3 SPX:CPCE的confirm，而这一次呢，both 2.8.0 and 2.8.3 have confirmed。

 

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，INDU率先lower low了，今天，expect SPX to follow soon。

 

 

The following charts are for your info only：

 

3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min)，RSI oversold plus lots of positive divergence，米金有反弹的可能，这对大盘是不利的。

 

3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield，再次提醒大家，长期Yield上升，不仅预示大盘top了，而且也是Fed不愿意看到的，因为这意味着mortgage rate的上升。

 

Performance Surrounding Memorial Day from www.sentimentrader.com。

 

soulvirus

shafa

thanks, cobra

Bigmouth

first page!

impresario100

Ave

yam

板凳

Bigmouth

K! Bandeng!

outer

Thank you for the efforts.

bucks

1st page again

javamood

臣沙发

hutong9

amd2k

1# Cobra


first page, re

Bigmouth

Floor?

gege88

什么都没抢着

Bigmouth

Still 1st page?

latitude

thanks

silencelake2007

顶，顶

bayliner1979

1st page

javamood

Fig 1, "MA20 is broken, this looks bullish"
                                                     ~~~~ ???

Diver

1# Cobra