Major Distribution Day and the Magic Number Three

Cobra

While I’m updating my chart book, I found this chart: 7.1.3 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days. I have an interesting thought about this chart and like to share with you. It’s purely speculation, so just for fun only.

 

My theory about Major Distribution Day (I know lots of people call it 90% down day) is that a Major Distribution Day never comes along, so once the first one happens, there’ll be at least another one, unless a Major Accumulation Day kicks in, then the Major Distribution Day has to be recounted.

 

My theory about magic number three is, well, I found interestingly, the 3rd time usually is different.

 

Now look at the chart, we had 2 previous Major Distribution Day, both cancelled by a Major Accumulation Day thereafter. Now the 3rd time we have a Major Distribution Day, so my question is: Will the 3rd time be different?

tog

沙发，先顶再看。多谢。

seabiscuit

板凳！！！

seabiscuit

1# Cobra

“so my question is: Will the 3rd time be different?”

You would know, Cobra.  It will all become clear in a moment. Everything that has a beginning has an end.

firefly8

谢蛇大那么多好图, 回送一副:

happyface

tog

Cobra, MDD 和 MAD 是 怎么用 $NYUPV 和 $NYTV 定义的？我是说谁比谁，值是多少？谢了。

大P股

第一排。
呕哈哈哈。。。。

1# Cobra

zhishun

tfmegatron

抱拳~~

1# Cobra

catbaby

Thanks!

nixiangsiwei

主席台前排就座。
问题：2，3个MDD后做反弹也不好把握。
近期的两个MDD都被MAD cancelled.
11月的竟连了5个MDD。即使第三个时杀进去，也套死。

q13117

>>> 11月的竟连了5个MDD。即使第三个时杀进去，也套死。
You are right.
I guess that time was very special in super panic phase.  Most money in my trading account were  trapped from 11/11/08 through 12/08/09. But I was lucky to insist until market was rebound from 11/24/08 through 12/08/09 and eascaped with profit.

This year that phase probably never comes back .....

imegy

可不是吗？我这个月就是等第二个，结果把call拆卖掉，jpm 27 put  从1.4清零
12# nixiangsiwei

snowwolf229

ByStander

While I’m updating my chart book, I found this chart: 7.1.3 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days. I have an interesting thought about this chart and like to share with you. It’s purely speculation,  ...
Cobra 发表于 2009-5-16 14:48

老蛇，如果你把你的图和NYSI起来看就比较清楚了。你的两个MDD RULE在UP TREND里一般不成立。在DOWN TREND和盘整期才成立。现在NYSI已掉头。我认为你会看到第二个MDD.

Cobra

Cobra, MDD 和 MAD 是 怎么用 $NYUPV 和 $NYTV 定义的？我是说谁比谁，值是多少？谢了。
tog 发表于 2009-5-16 15:38

NYUPV : NYDNV > 9 = Major Accumulation Day
NYDNV : NYUPV > 9 = Major Distribution Day

tog

NYUPV : NYDNV > 9 = Major Accumulation Day
NYDNV : NYUPV > 9 = Major Distribution Day
Cobra 发表于 2009-5-16 17:15

多谢。班长。

DARKSTONE

BSC

thanks