Significant Top immiment

csw2002

Last week, I cautioned that bears need to be patient

Finally, my system is turning bearish:

My prop sector correlations chart is in a strong sell zone
Intermediate term breadth has finally turned down despite SPX making new ATH
In addition, new lows are rising rapidly within the sp500 universe - hence internals are weakening not just amongst small cap universe
Intermediate term CPCE is not only frothy, but also divergent - which usually occurs at major tops
However, institutions are not yet distributing.

Next week is thanksgiving and equity index will likely range. However, post thanksgiving, I expect we will see a quick decline, probably around 5% from peak to trough. As institutions are not yet distributing, the decline is likely to be very quick and one legged. Of course in a week's time, this might change. If institutions start distributing, the decline could become multi-legged and take multiple weeks. However, bulls should be thankful if we do see such a decline as santa rally usually doesn't arrive without a sizeable pullback in late nov/early dec.

TNA

Thanks a lot for your post !

ninemao

节日一般都会涨，做空要小心

csw2002

Just an update on the institutional buying% charts for all 4 indices as at friday's close.

Note that DJIA/R2K have suffered most pullbacks and they are the only 2 indices in distribution as well. If over the next few days, should SPX/NDX also enter distribution, then expect the pullback to be more severe.

UFO007

多谢！下周要小心点了。。也许要开始减仓了

csw2002

Forgot to post my AAPL $ spend/volume chart after Friday's close.

Notice that volume spikes are often (though not always) near intermediate term tops for AAPL. I am sure you all have heard that volume surge is good. Well, the reality is quite different. Far more often than not, after persistent uptrend, a surge in volume marks distribution, not accumulation.

Now we can refine the above indicator even further. Green circles are those spots where we have seen a top (either immediately before or after the spike in volume) and red ones are those that are not tops. If you look at the above chart closely, red circles tend to follow green circles. What it means is that after distribution near the top, big money comes in again near the bottom.

If my read is correct, then AAPL is close to a top of some kind and this does not bode well for large cap indices (such as SPX and NDX) which are basically being propped up by the biggest 6 stocks due to their respective cap weighting.

csw2002

See my top 8 stock (by market cap) institutional buying % chart short term accumulation/distribution chart. This means the main rungs that are holding up SPX/NDX are being taken away. If it continues, expect the large cap to follow RUT and go much lower.

Cheese

csw2002

Thanksgiving gift for everyone here. Recall last week I said if we see institutions enter into distribution zone, then the pullback is likely to be multi-legged. They did and let's see if SPX tops and then enter into a downtrend for at least 2 weeks.

Cheese

fortune1212

楼主很准啊！现在是什么状况能UPDATE 一下吗？

future11

真得很准，希望在转盘的时候提醒一声

UFO007

厉害。。预测真准 ！

hutong123

厉害。。预测真准 ！

snailittle

csw2002 发表于 2021-11-21 06:58 AM
Just an update on the institutional buying% charts for all 4 indices as at friday's close.

Note t ...

大牛请问，

我看似乎你的institution buy/sell was derived from dark pool data.  Am I correct?
I wonder How do they differentiation sell vs buy in the dark pool?
and where are these data available for download?

非常感谢

csw2002

snailittle 发表于 2021-12-13 11:03 PM
大牛请问，

我看似乎你的institution buy/sell was derived from dark pool data.  Am I correct?

In my wechat group, this question has been done to death. In short, we are looking at market maker's position - who only needs to short if they have to cross trades against large orders. Who places large orders? Answer: institutions. Hence, by examining MM's short orders, we can determine institutions' buying.

snailittle

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-13 11:01 PM
In my wechat group, this question has been done to death. In short, we are looking at market maker ...

非常感谢，虽然我还是不太懂， MM的trading数据可能也不是retail investor常常能接触到的。

csw2002

snailittle 发表于 2021-12-14 08:07 PM
非常感谢，虽然我还是不太懂， MM的trading数据可能也不是retail investor常常能接触到的。

The following is from a FAQ document of my wechat group

Q: could you please talk more in general about MM/institution interaction? I feel they can be friends/enemy, very fluid
A: in most financial mkts, whether lit or not, most trades cross against MMs. When institutions buy, MM, in most of the times, DO NOT have the inventory to sell to institutions. Hence, MMs will be nakedly shorting stocks institutions are buying. By figuring out what MMs are short on, we can figure out what institutions are buying.

The data r all available from FINRA. You just need to know what to look for