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本帖最后由 xxtrader 于 2009-4-18 17:45 编辑
答案当然不是，大家都看到消息了吧：Citi said Friday that the conversion, which had been scheduled to take place this month, will be delayed until regulators complete their stress tests on
the 19 biggest U.S. banks. Results are expected by early May.
C DELAY宣布优转普是C不得不作的选择因为C的优先股问题太大了，让我们来看看问题所在，周五 Citi's convertible preferred shares series T (C_pi.N) traded at around $34.25, with a face value of $50. Under the terms of Citi's exchange offering, the $50 face value is discounted by 15 percent, and can then buy shares at $3.25 apiece, which translates to about 13.08 shares. Those shares now trade at $3.65 a piece, so 13.08 shares are worth about $47.73. 如果要让优先股和普通股价格持平的话，按优先股上周五收盘的价格和现在的优转普的COI来计算，C普通股应该对应其优先股的价格是$2.62 ，这就是上周很多机构投资者都疯抢花旗的可转换优先股的原因，因为它的本身问题导致利润狂大，所以上周五C的普通股股价跌也是投资者对其未来DILUTED SHARE PRICE 的忧虑，所以跌价是必然的，因为花旗要转换52.5亿的优先股，那得发行多少普通股啊。
另外值得一提的事是C要让自己的普通股不跌价，只能是靠提高兑换价格，所以现在的3.25也许在五月初就会变为4了，如果C是这个策略，那么4以下的价格都是可以买入的时机。但这个也许只是我们的WISHFUL THINKING,因为我们来看一则路透社的新闻
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A popular trade involving Citigroup shares could yield fat profits after the bank said on Friday it is not changing terms of a preferred share exchange, but new investors could struggle to get a piece of the action. 如果C真的说话算话的话，那么3.25的转换条款是不会变得，那么后果是甚么呢，下面场面的描述我前面已经提到了
The trade involves buying Citi preferred stock and simultaneously selling borrowed shares of common stock (C.N), known as short-selling.
The preferred shares can be converted into common stock in a few weeks, meaning they can effectively be used to buy Citigroup shares at a much lower price（至少是低于2.62/SHARE） than the level at which they can be sold now（周五是3.65刀/SHARE）, potentially yielding a 200 percent profit. OMG,200％的利润，谁会不动心呢？
CONCLUSION:那么C到底是选择在五月初政府RELEASE TARP 细节后 出口反口更改转换条款（3。24－》4 OR OVER 4)以好让其不用发行过多的普通股稀释股价，还是就放任让C的普通股股价一路下跌到与其优先股股价持平的位置呢？（注：按上周五C可转换优先股收市时的QUOTE 价来讲，其普通股股价应该是低于2.62才是好的买入点位，那么上周五普通股股价收盘时3.65的价格足足是高出了1刀）
那么C的忠实的投资者最好也是先观望别急着下手吧。。。。
PS.以上为小青蛙乱放炮，俺的意见仅供各位大大们参考 |
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发表于 2009-4-18 04:40 PM
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