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[放炮] 明天扑死皮

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发表于 2014-1-29 12:57 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


本帖最后由 oldpigwang 于 2014-1-29 01:01 AM 编辑

死皮此番难爬过1828,更大的回调在即。
目前只有23%trader 认为在6个月内会有更低。
和胡同一样,ALL in 呼声占主导。
新高呼声太高,不妙。

发表于 2014-1-29 01:42 AM | 显示全部楼层
我看低,等捞底

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发表于 2014-1-29 01:48 AM | 显示全部楼层
空就算了
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发表于 2014-1-29 01:54 AM | 显示全部楼层
suanc2008 发表于 2014-1-29 01:42 AM
我看低,等捞底

多低算低?
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发表于 2014-1-29 01:54 AM | 显示全部楼层
哪里看来得?

“目前只有23%trader ”

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American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey,  发表于 2014-1-29 08:29 AM
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发表于 2014-1-29 03:07 AM | 显示全部楼层
dsp 发表于 2014-1-29 02:54 AM
多低算低?

1720-1750

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next, lower, Next, lower...  发表于 2014-1-29 08:31 AM
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发表于 2014-1-29 03:14 AM | 显示全部楼层
suanc2008 发表于 2014-1-29 03:07 AM
1720-1750

不算低

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发表于 2014-1-29 03:24 AM | 显示全部楼层
dsp 发表于 2014-1-29 04:14 AM
不算低

说说你看多少
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发表于 2014-1-29 05:48 AM | 显示全部楼层
今天到不了1828吧。老大等1828 扑?

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Mad Money says, 1828 likely ceiling.  发表于 2014-1-29 08:32 AM
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发表于 2014-1-29 05:51 AM | 显示全部楼层
现在1794,从1805掉下来的。开盘再冲1820?
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发表于 2014-1-29 06:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
dsp 发表于 2014-1-29 01:54 AM
哪里看来得?

“目前只有23%trader ”

Jim Cramer: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101371107 ... s%20signal%20deeper

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-29 08:26 AM | 显示全部楼层
dsp 发表于 2014-1-29 01:54 AM
哪里看来得?

“目前只有23%trader ”

CNBC Mad Money 1/28 show
Cramer: Ugly charts signal deeper correction ahead
Although Jim Cramer always bases investment decisions on fundamental analysis, he also thinks that technical analysis can provide valuable insights, especially when fundamentals are somewhat cloudy.

And with broad market weakness ebbing on Tuesday, like so many pros, Cramer can't help but wonder if the worst of the stock market storm has passed, or if we're simply between bands in a major system.

According to top technical analyst Carley Garner, you shouldn't put your umbrella away, just yet.

She says there are too many bulls in the market for an advance to sustain.

That is, according to the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey, only 23.8% of people polled expect the market to go lower over the next six months. For Garner this is a classic sign of complacency, as that figure is much lower than the long-term historical average for bearish sentiment at around 30.5%.
At the crux of Garner's concern: there's still plenty of room for selling as the bulls ring the register and the bears come in off the sidelines and get some fresh short positions going.
Also Garner finds levels in the RSI or Relative Strength Index concerning.
It reached 78 late last year, an overbought level not seen since the market peaked in 2007. Although she doesn't expect a sell-off to be nearly as sharp as the one that followed in 2007, she does feel that any reading above 70 is a red flag.
Analysis from another top technician, Carolyn Boroden, leads to similar conclusions.
Boroden is cautious because the S&P has fallen below its 50-day moving average, and she believes it needs to clear that important hurdle, which is from 1808 through 1823, before you can buy stocks with confidence.
If the S&P can break above 1823, Boroden becomes optimistic but if it can't clear the hurdle, then Boroden suspects the market could be vulnerable to a much deeper correction.
Back to Garner, she thinks the S&P could decline down to its 100-day moving, a level that held three separate times in 2013. Right now the S&P's 100-day moving average is around 1,755.
Meanwhile, Garner sees problems in the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, too. In this case, she says stochastics are falling precipitously from overbought levels, and that tells Garner the Dow could have more room to fall.
This index has been in an uptrend since September of 2011, and she thinks it could drop down to the bottom of the up-trend channel, which is currently down at around 15,000—so we're talking about a potential 900 point decline from current levels.
All told, the charts are troublesome

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-29 08:30 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 oldpigwang 于 2014-1-29 08:33 AM 编辑
dsp 发表于 2014-1-29 01:54 AM
多低算低?


1755, 100ma, not hold(spx),
next 1670(spx), which is weekly chart trend.
next 15000(djx), ...

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-29 09:01 AM | 显示全部楼层
各位,英文好的,多看看CNBC Show, 听听这个世界上,
除了胡同以外,发生了什么,大家伙们在指导我们什么。

胡同的“你今天抄底了吗”不是你的圣经,是不能盲从地。

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dsp
Mark it  发表于 2014-1-29 11:57 PM

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发表于 2014-1-29 09:10 AM | 显示全部楼层
oldpigwang 发表于 2014-1-29 09:01 AM
各位,英文好的,多看看CNBC Show, 听听这个世界上,
除了胡同以外,发生了什么,大家伙们在指导我们什么。 ...

这个Cramer有很深的MM背景,在花街人脉很广。尽管多数时候他推荐股票都是托,但是不容小觑他的影响力。对于MM的活动他应该比我们知道得清楚得多,就看他怎么说和说多少了。

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发表于 2014-1-29 09:14 AM | 显示全部楼层
NIU, Old Pig Wang!!

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发表于 2014-1-29 12:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 90ufo 于 2014-1-29 12:21 PM 编辑

你这个准确率,怎么不做future啊,昨晚ES puts 很便宜啊,8am 已经2-3倍。不过我没有做,早上我和小伙伴都惊呆了

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-29 12:26 PM | 显示全部楼层
是的,昨晚ES puts 很便宜。以后爱上future option.
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发表于 2014-1-29 06:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
90ufo 发表于 2014-1-29 01:20 PM
你这个准确率,怎么不做future啊,昨晚ES puts 很便宜啊,8am 已经2-3倍。不过我没有做,早上我和小伙伴都惊 ...

连晚上也可以做,24x7 almost?

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发表于 2014-1-29 06:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
hotday 发表于 2014-1-29 06:14 PM
连晚上也可以做,24x7 almost?

24x5days sat sun off.       fri 5:15pm close to sun 6pm open.

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