请高手分析一下FB， 谢谢！

bd708

我觉得FB还是很有前途的！

wynn

FB其實不是最垃圾的股票，它的商業模式不是沒有價值，但它絕對不是很多華爾街大帝口中的潮流帶領者。在這個商業平台，FB是較遲登台的，它已大失先機。美國網絡市場加速手機化，令到FB平台變成落後的代名詞，FB用家不會發現問題，但網絡廣告商卻不是這樣想。

rightonmoney

bd708

谢谢Wynn的分析，很到位，那么，基于你的观点，以手机为平台的社交网络公司哪个比较被看好？

xiaochong

垃圾就不要分析了

jamesmith

I am looking into FB as well. Here's a place to get some thoughts: http://files.shareholder.com/dow ... ease072612FINAL.PDF

jamesmith

after taking a look at facebook, a major worry about facebook share is when more lock up expires at November 14th.
Details can be seen in this May21 S-8 form:  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edga ... 1917/d354793ds8.htm

1,182,700,275   shares of facebook are restricted. For RSUs, restriction already expired, the result is negative income for previous quarter. When more restriction expire in November, shareholder equity will be diluted and income statements will be negatively effected.

However, facebook does have positives:
1) deep integration with Apple
2) quickly revamping its mobile offering
3) userbase still expanding in some part of the world and the large userbase's profit potential not yet exploited

Non-GAAP results (excludes restricted shares) for last quarter gives an income of 515 million, merely 7.9% growth compared with previous year. Non-GAPP EPS is $0.12, same as previous year (this is due to shares being diluted). A dumb way to estimate full year EPS, $0.12 * 4 = $0.48.  FB closed at $19.1 today, this gives us a P/E of 39.8, still too expensive for me.

Things are expected to improve in 2013, but there is still too much uncertainty with this stock. I am keeping an eye on it, but won't buy it now...