SHORT-TERM: A BOTTOM WAS IN OR VERY CLOSE, NOT VERY BRIGHT TOMORROW THOUGH
今天可能至少是个短期bottom了,因为从下面的图看,像今天这样gap down then lower low then close in green的情况,很少有例外,此后都有至少几天的反弹。其他图的例子我就不举了,太多reversal bar了,因此不要告诉我什么VIX黑棒棒,UUP黑棒棒,啥啥啥的。
今天唯一让人不放心的地方是reversal发生在收盘前的最后一小时,不太像通常的bullish reversal day。下面的统计来自Bespoke,正好可以证明我的担心。当然,明天80%的几率收红并不能说明the bottom wasn’t in or close,所以只是说可能明天(甚至今后几天)会有反复,大家要有心理准备。
如果真的the bottom in了,那么反弹的target会是哪里呢?下面的图,周末的报告讲了,因为rebound a > a’,而pullback b’ > b表明牛牛的力量越来越弱,而熊熊的力量越来越强,如果这个规律继续的话,那么这一轮反弹的幅度,应该小于上一轮反弹的幅度,也就是说会在tinted area里结束。
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market,有同学可能会指出,INDU lower low了,是否意味着SPX会跟进?这个有可能,不过今天这个lower low不是lower than the last Swing Low,因此其重要性可能要打折扣,此外就算是说明SPX会lower low,也无法排除the bottom was in or close的可能性啊,完全可能反弹后再掉下来的哈。我个人,老实说,不愿意相信the bottom was in了,问题是我目前并没有证据证明我更愿意相信的东东。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS
See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH FRIDAY
According Stock Trader’s Almanac, September Triple Witching, Dow up 6 straight and 7 of last 8.
See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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