SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
两点说明:
- 最快明天开始回调。
- 回调,如果有的话,多半是买的机会,因为至少今天的high还会被测试一下,大盘才有可能会有较大的pullback。
关于最快明天开始回调的理由有四:
- SPX close above BB top for 2 consecutive days, short at today’s close cover on the very first day when SPX close below BB top since 2003, you’ve got 83% chances.
- T2112太高,这个可能看着不是很extreme,但是由于很多股票已经在很高的价位了,所以目前这个位置可以算是非常extreme了,至少今年前几次这么高的时候SPX都有不同程度的回调(See blue curve in the background)。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
REVERSAL
中期,今天正式进入我在04/01 Market Recap和04/21 Market Recap提到的wave 5 target范围了,如果SPX在这个target area发生强烈反转的话,要小心primary wave 3暴跌的可能。我目前并没有证据说要暴跌,但亦不能100%证明要大涨特涨,所以只能走着瞧了,总之,知道目前是个关键区域就好了。
还记得我曾经提到过IBM ER后跌,不是好消息吧?今天AMZN ER后大涨,这个,却不是什么好消息。下面的screenshot来自Bespoke。数据有点点老,但是我的映像是无论是IBM还是AMZN最近几个ER都是符合下表的规律的。
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BULLISH WEDNESDAY
See 04/21 Market Recap for more details.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. Failed!
- 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will at least close below 04/20 close.
- 04/27 Market Outlook: IBM down on ER and AMZN up on ER mean lower SPX price in 5 weeks.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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