02/22/2011 大盘回顾 （Will the 3rd time be the charm?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 02/10-/13,02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. *6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Watch for potential buy setup. BEARISH 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200). 02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/17 L Breakeven *Stopped out long position on 02/22 with loss. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *DOWN. I hold partial short position overnight.

My Thoughts I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW BUT I EXPECT A 2ND LEG DOWN THEREAFTER

 

今天没有结论，一切都要看明后天大盘如何反弹。最近一共有三次SPX > 20点的pullback，如果按照通常的pullback越来越大的规律的话，那么应该可能性非常大，我们这次是2 leg down at least，换句话说，就是还没有跌完。当然，因为市场最近很牛，加上VIX is now way above BB and MA ENV(10, 20) top（注意，是20% above MA10哈，不是常见的10% above MA10 which is nothing），因此也无法排除今天就bottom了的可能性（像前两次pullback一样）。Personally, 我暂时比较倾向于会有2nd leg down at least。

 

 

下面是明天可能收绿的理由：

 

VIX rose 18%+ on a single day, buy SPX at close and sell at the next day’s close since year 2000, you have 81% chances for tomorrow.

 

 

36 out of 54 times (67%) a green day the next day after a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9).

 

 

下面是可能短期底部的理由：

 

6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB), 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV), VIX out of BB top or MA ENV(10, 20) is a potential buy setup.

 

 

好像最近凡是VIX:VXV > 0.9都是底部。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE NO 2.5%+ PULLBACK FOR 85 MORE TRADING DAYS, BEARS MAY WAIT ANOTHER WEEK, BUT DON’T HOPE TOO MUCH

 

See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

 

See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200), %B too high.
TLT		*Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		*Breakout? See WTIC below.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S	*Testing trend line.
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

oldgordon

3x

hi-liter

谢谢。首次离老蛇如此之近。

summer123

schmd2000

nanosensor

Ding

happyface

thanks

trender

FIRST PAGE,THANKS.

cartier

Fan8an

Thanks

oda

chujingluyou

ahdou

first page

shoujie

maopao

acoust

First page!

americanpancake

skipjack

Thanks

leftright

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