02/02/2011 大盘回顾 （Bull Flag?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven *Since the breakeven stop loss has been set, so no chance to follow this setup as the setup will no longer be valid if breakdown below 02/01 SPY mid price at $130.18. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold long position overnight, slightly underwater.

My Thoughts *Clueless as ALWAYS.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A BULL FLAG IN THE FORMING, SO ONE MORE PUSH UP AHEAD

 

今天是不是因为大雪的缘故，感觉就像假日一样，没啥好说的，所以After Bell Quick Summary就免了吧。The intraday chart looks like a bull Flag or Pennant or Descending Triangle in the forming，特别是在the previous resistance上盘整，因此是比较bullish的。两点说明：

1. 还是昨天的说法，类似于02/01的strong up很少只有1 leg的，所以chances are good that we’ll see another leg up。
2. 如果明天就暴跌，没有one more leg up，就像last Friday只有one leg down (normally should be 2 legs down)一样，那么小心典型的在重要顶部常见的reversal of reversal of reversal pattern。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

 

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM		ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/01 L
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

jWishbone

Thanks.

福多多

slcgh

班长辛苦了，祝新年快乐健康！

wishful

1ST PG

炒股新手

第一次坐板凳，真开心！
祝老蛇兔年发大财！

20108

祝蛇班和胡同同仁新春愉快.

raise3

plmt

永恒罗马

今天本来就是过节嘛！！！

班长新年快乐！！！

trender

thanks Cobra. 新春愉快。

ninemao

班长， 最近VIX 工作得好吗？

superxy

老蛇，follow你的STmodel明天！

lite1067

蛇大，兔年吉祥，发发发发发发发 ！！！！！！！！！！！！！

trueself

l9861103

xixi

Thanks BanZhan! Gong Xi Fa Chai!

atrader

thanks

开小差

thx,ding

Cobra

班长， 最近VIX 工作得好吗？
ninemao 发表于 2011-2-2 17:04

不明白你的问题。你是说both vix and spx red, 所以明天长？最近不是很有edge。