01/07/2011 大盘回顾（Headwind Ahead）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max is 24. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? *6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). *8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. *01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. *01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. *01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence means negative ahead.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP.  I hold no position over the weekend.

My Thoughts A correction is just a matter of time, but until price confirms, I’d rather long than short, with caution though.

 

SHORT-TERM: 71% CHANCES A LOWER WEEKLY CLOSE WITHIN A WEEK OR TWO

 

SPX stuck in a trading range，因此短期方向不明，只能等待breakout后给出方向。

 

 

我的猜测是，either breakdown directly or (most likely) false breakout on the upside then fall back into the current range at least，理由是下面的统计。这个猜测应该在一到两周内发生，特别是January Expiration Week which was horrible since 1999, Dow down big 8 of last 11 according to Stock Trader’s Almanac，无疑是熊熊的第二道保险。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

中期维持pivot top around 01/05 to 01/12的forecast (See 12/31 Market Recap for more details)。我的猜测是可能01/12 (and a day or two after)以后是pivot top的可能性大些，尽管现在还不能说01/05 pivot top是个错误的forecast。Again，update一下理由，因为我又找到几个新的理由，呵呵。Trading wise, again and again, expectation不等于trade，until price confirms，所有的forecast均属猜测，是take caution的依据，但不是trading against the current trend的理由，这个I want to make it very very clear。

 

• 下面的统计来自Schaeffer，the first 5 days of year is up至少对于the rest of January不是好事情。

 

 

• 下面的分析来自Bespoke，我过去提过几次，统计表明strong Off-Season往往意味着weaker Earning Season，见下图，这个统计还是比较可靠的，何况在beat rate trending down的情况下，Earnings Estimate and Guidance却在不断地提高，所以可能性很大，the coming Earning Season会比较不好玩。

 

 

• 下面的图是what happened when SPX Bullish Percent Index was way too high。

 

 

• 大家知道Non Farm Payroll day往往是pivot day，特别是red day的话。Well, we’ve got it this Friday。

 

 

• 在12/31 Market Recap里，我提到TED top数28 trading days，就可能是the index top (See 12/31 Market Recap for more details)，至少现在还不能说这个coincidence是个错误，虽然personally，我不抱希望，呵呵。

 

 

• Short-term session的统计已经提到了，the next 2 weeks可能不好玩，特别是Expiration Week，seasonality terrible。
• From chart 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010, check by yourself in my public chart list, starting from the 8th trading day in January (which is 01/12) until the end of the month, QQQQ has been bearish since year 2002 without exception.
• From 08/27 bottom to 11/05 high, SPX up 49 trading day, so 49 * Fib 61.8% = 30, adding from 11/29 bottom, what we get then happens to be on 01/11. (See 12/31 Market Recap for more details)

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

See 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/05 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	*Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
TLT		Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly	UP
FXE		*Clear breakdown, the downtrend resumes.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S	1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	*Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	01/06 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

chickencoop

        sf

oldfox

lungfish

PacificLegend

farmer01

回复 4# lungfish


    thanks

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

wxw

hao, ding!

blackrock

Thank you so much.

noob

源济

hillcrest

skipjack

Thanks

Bencat

I will patiently wait for this = "我的猜测是可能01/12 (and a day or two after)以后是pivot top的可能性大些"

dreampen

Thanks!

snowlover

thanks

chuanhua

busywind

thanks

ut1984

ut1984