09/30/2010 白天灌水

ninemao

今天 iwm money flow block trade tick up 的量有点大
ByStander 发表于 2010-9-30 16:28

    啥意思？讲讲,please!

ByStander

啥意思？讲讲,please!
ninemao 发表于 2010-9-30 16:38

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public ... l?mod=topnav_2_3000

ninemao

ByStander 发表于 2010-9-30 16:41

    好多fresh money is going to IWM, does it mean a more up ahead?

Whigs

ByStander 发表于 2010-9-30 16:41

Confirm that Fed was in action.

ByStander

好多fresh money is going to IWM, does it mean a more up ahead?
ninemao 发表于 2010-9-30 16:47

    No idea, but iwm is stronger than spy these days.

crasher

Confirm that Fed was in action.
Whigs 发表于 2010-9-30 16:51

Sort of make sense. Mr. O is pushing his agenda to make him look nice to small businesses. Naturally the hot money would flow to this sector.

ninemao

No idea, but iwm is stronger than spy these days.
ByStander 发表于 2010-9-30 16:55

   and tran too. 队长喜欢用IWM,TRAN and RUT 作为先行指标来看短期走势，不知道是不是预示，短期会走强？

ByStander

and tran too. 队长喜欢用IWM,TRAN and RUT 作为先行指标来看短期走势，不知道是不是预示，短期会 ...
ninemao 发表于 2010-9-30 17:02

是不是走强老蛇说了算。我觉得这个人说的也有道理

    We finished the day with just some minor losses, but the intraday reversal after breaking through 1150 gave the action a very toppy feel. Breadth was close to flat, but volume picked up on the reversal, and that is a negative.

As you'd expect in an uptrending market, the dip-buyers jumped in and helped bounce us after we took out Wednesday's lows, but they didn't gain much traction in the afternoon, and we ended with a weak close.

There wasn't any panicky selling, but there was distribution, and we didn't come back with enough vigor to scare out the new bulls. The major indices are still in an uptrend, and the action today didn't do much to change things, but momentum is definitely slowing and the danger of a rollover is increasing.

I don't want to be too bearish here as there is still some momentum and dip-buying interest, but we need to increase our vigilance and watch for further erosion. Probably the most negative thing about the action today was that many of the key big-cap leaders like Netflix, Apple, VMWare , Amazon, etc., were relatively weak. That may just be some end-of-the-quarter profit realization, but if momentum in those sorts of names continues to cool, that will negative implications for the broader market.

The first couple days of a new quarter often have a positive bias as new money is added to retirement funds, but then we have a lull until earnings reports start to hit in a couple weeks. In the interim, we are going to be very focused on economic data and any hints they provide about the likelihood of Quantitative Easing II. That is still the primary market driver right now, and good economic news may actually be a market negative if it makes further quantitative easing unlikely.