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[转贴] Difference between 2008 and 2010

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发表于 2010-5-26 07:16 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


I do not compare this current equity correction to 2008 because I believe we have vastly different circumstances. 2008 was the implosion of the financial system with the distress of many financial institutions caused by incredible leverage, bad lending practices and a historically massive decline in housing prices. Now we have more optimistic signals: GDP has turned mildly positive, large corporations are in very lean shape, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 is in the 7-8% neighborhood, residential real-estate is bottoming, inflation is tame with a primed pump via low short-term rates, the yield curve is very steep, and the jobs outlook seems to be getting better.
发表于 2010-5-26 07:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
IMHO the uncertainty level is even greater than 2008. The only difference is that most major corporations may be better prepared this time. On the other hand, history says nothing about future, neither does status quo.
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