BCRX: 大盘汹涨，我的不涨?

noname6688

多数在水下。STP STEM AMD ARNA "2F"

wolfdoctor

1# noname6688


If you are investing it, then forget about it for about 8 months and come back to check when people speculate next flu season again. If it is still weak like this, then accept the truth and cut loss.
If you just trade it frequently, then shorting any bounce at resistance can bring you good prifit. This company is abandoned by funds and has no self intention to create opportunities to come back, which guarantees shorters to make no-brainer money so far.

noname6688

thanks.

In the morning pre house always higher

百万宝贝

thanks.

In the morning pre house always higher
noname6688 发表于 2010-2-9 15:24

你的文章写得很好。

wolfdoctor

I feel something will happen soon.

superxy

I feel something will happen soon.
wolfdoctor 发表于 2010-2-9 17:12

dOWN BIG?
Vol is smaller and smaller....

BigBull

再到$5.5遛一圈？ 基本面已发生改变， 有了从日本的稳定收入， 怎模还是跌跌不休？

高手来看一下，主力全跑了没有？

wolfdoctor

这个日本的市场有多大，收入最终分配给bcrx多少大家都不知道，而且bcrx的产能是否可以满足目前的供货需求也不好说，所以现在的走法应该是按保守的估计来。再说bcrx没有dividend，靠speculation来估价也可以，大盘很差的时候甚至按其它生物垃圾股待遇，打压到cash value以下都有可能。
bcrx里现在没有强庄出来把持，institution最近一直只占40%，在small bio sector里算少的，应该是冷门，换句话说不被看好。去年12月下旬又进来了一些小的institution，但是今年一月中旬有在顶部出货的嫌疑。之后买量就又小又弱，大好消息被更大地sell off。
其实后面即使有stockpiling一样可以拉起sell on news。因为只要美国这边没批，市场有限，speculation的空间就不大，不象去年大家speculate h1n1时可以随意发挥pump，现在small bio的多头庄家估计觉得没什么油水。而且经过日本批准和beat季报两关考验，除非到时候一根大阳帮直接收到阻力区上边逼空头cover，空头现在应该觉得没有什么是mission impossible，而做多的已经没有一点点底气了。

ranchgirl

8# wolfdoctor

Thanks for the good analysis!!!!

BigBull

8# wolfdoctor

谢谢分析。一些可得到的信息如下：

这个日本的市场有多大，(全球第二大，仅次于美国）
收入最终分配给bcrx多少大家都不知道，（10-20% loyalty, and some sale milestone 20-70 mil)
而且bcrx的产能是否可以满足目前的供货需求也不好说，(应该够，bcrx 给日本原料药，日本做formulation)

wolfdoctor

主要是流感新药的市场认可度和潜力有多大还不好预计，而且日本卖的peramovir只是outpatient的药，要卖一段时间数量才有谱。
这个10～20%的收益，其实也就相当于是全额做了个小的市场。日本的五到十分之一，也就相当于台湾或是欧洲某小国吧，仔细想想还是很小的。而且我记得这个loyalty好像是有90MM的uplimit。
还有，bcrx目前有几个三期临床试验，很费钱的。万一peramivir销售不理想，再做offer圈钱。。。

8# wolfdoctor

谢谢分析。一些可得到的信息如下：

这个日本的市场有多大，(全球第二大，仅次于美国）
收入最终分配给bcrx多少大家都不知道，（10-20% loyalty, and some sale milestone 20-70 mil)
而且bc ...
BigBull 发表于 2010-2-10 00:12

BigBull

11# wolfdoctor


someting big will happen! Stockpiling order coming? 12% already

wolfdoctor

11# wolfdoctor


someting big will happen! Stockpiling order coming? 12% already
BigBull 发表于 2010-2-10 13:54

It's possible that shorters hear some rumors and start to cover for profit. Volume does not look very impressive for a confirmed good news, on which new buyers will rush in. Probably Japan start to negotiate price for stockpiling. It's also possible that US will buy more. US has treated 1000+ patient with peramivir and is expected to use about 2~3k dosages. So it could be several k new purchase.

I think if no news or rumor comes out this week, it can go down at same speed next week. But I have to say, the company is doing very bad in communication. Hedge funds get any news probably from insiders much much earlier than public investor. There are some problems in this company.

CoolMax

你看，MM听见了吧。

牛熊

:lol

noname6688

Thanks, but not a good trader

你的文章写得很好。
百万宝贝 发表于 2010-2-9 15:26

noname6688

8# wolfdoctor


well said
today BCRX has a nice run

wolfdoctor

Yesterday's reason was probably this:
Australia NSW EUA:
http://www.health.nsw.gov.au/policies/pd/2010/PD2010_012.html