保障退休、对抗通膨的10支高股利股票(上)

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保障退休、对抗通膨的10支高股利股票(上)


过去两年，股票市场让投资者深感焦虑与不安。对於年轻的股民而言，他们还有大量的时间弥补损失。但是对於即将退休的人士来说，2009年三月份以来的反弹，仅仅是对重伤的养老投资组合做了部分的止血。

相较于2007年的高点，目前股票价格仍有30％的落差。现代人普遍长寿，长寿带来的风险就是投资组合可能不足以支持你到最终。美国人口普查统计数字表明，平均65岁的男性退休後，还有近20年的寿命可期，女性平均的寿命则是更长。这些数字都显示，投资组合是否经得起长时间考验，是投资人最重要的课题，发放股息的股票则成了退休投资组合的关键选项。巴伦周刊 (Barron’s) 选出10支股利最优的个股，什麽企业路遥知马力就让时间去检验。

在进入细节之前，再给投资人一点背景资料：史考特证券针对1000名美国人所做的调查发现，75％婴儿潮 (1946年至1964年之间出生的人士) 受访者声称，他们担心完全退休不会是一个可行的选项。史考特证券首席营销官指出，这些人没有足够的时间恢复过来，金融危机和早春的股票大跌，给他们带来一记沉重的双重打击。依照目前的生活开支水平，他们的退休金投资组合已难以应付。

这些即将退休的人士可能会被迫改变他们的计划，接受较低的退休生活水平。61岁、新墨西哥大学的数据库管理员威尔森 (Susan Wilson)说，“市场已经回来了，但我的投资仍然远不及之前的表现。我必须比我计划得工作更久，甚至即使我这么做了，仍然不能确定我是否能过上之前我所想像的生活。”

如果还有一线希望，那就是利用现在的时机，进场持有大型、高品质、支付股息并且股息年年增长的股票。Pioneer Investments的专家说，“现在，你可以在低於平均水平的位置，买到品质良好的蓝筹股，或是不断提高股息的优质股票。”在半世纪以来股息削减最为严重的此时此刻，这种股票更显得弥足珍贵。事实上根据标准普尔的数据，去年有62家企业削减了他们的股息，2009截至目前为止，更有78家企业进行股息缩减的动作，削减金额高达480亿美元。

低质量的股票一般不会支付股息，目前股票市场有往这个走向倾斜的趋势，不过在这场拉力赛的第二阶段，优质股票将会重新取得主导权，投资人选对个股，便能从股息发放中真正取得好处。

究竟哪些公司值得退休人士收入组合当中？巴伦周刊选择了10支个股作为投资最佳选项，其中包括顶级的美国企业，也不乏优秀的外国公司。许多公司收益率超过 3％，并且定期提高股息分红。此外他们也展现了强大的竞争优势，稳定的收益与现金流，坚实的资产负债表，以及深具吸引力的价格估值。巴伦周刊的首选如下：

桑坦德银行 (Banco Santander)
当美国、欧洲许多大型银行纷纷陷入困境时，这家总部位於马德里的金融巨头展现出雄厚的财务实力。去年，以零售和存款性业务为主的桑坦德银行公布，净利润增长为9％、到达 133亿美元。 2009年，该银行将再次成为世界上最赚钱的银行之一，在纽约证交所的股息收益率为 4.2％。

美国多数投资者并不很了解桑坦德银行，但这情况已经开始改变，因为做为欧元地区规模最大的银行，他们目前已在美国区域展开扩大。桑坦德银行30多年来在主席Emilio Botin的带领下，遍布16个国家，分支机构主要集中在美洲和欧洲，数量高达14000家。

分析师估计，明年桑坦德银行每股盈利约为1.60美元，目前欧洲经济增长放缓，西班牙房地产和建筑市场疲弱，不过桑坦德银行的前景却显得特别坚实。

雪佛龙 (Chevron)
大型综合能源企业比如雪佛龙石油勘探公司，同时提供1美元对冲（当原油价格上涨则美元贬值）、以及世界上最重要两种的商品：石油和天然气。雪佛龙收益率约 3.5％，去年油价创下纪录每桶接近150美元时，每股收入曾达11.67美元，今年估计为4.88美元，2010年预估将回到7.65美元的范围。

自从原油价格一年来下跌约 47％，雪佛龙一直保持优越的收益，同时股息与每股帐面价值也不断增加，资本收益达20％以上。该公司拥有超过 90亿美元的现金，增长速度超越全球同业，未来企业发展的重点之一再生能源也有值得期待的前景。分析师还认为，对抗通货膨胀石油也是很好的选择，考虑税後调整甚至比黄金更好。

英特尔 (Intel)
作为微处理器、半导体芯片、和各种电脑通信设备的龙头制造商，英特尔公司经历景气周期的考验，其生产规模和全球优势皆很难被其他企业所复制。多年来，该公司的销售业绩上下反弹，但是每个周期最终都能冲关收高，利润和股息也是如此，2004年以来每年平均增长幅度达28％。

英特尔公司的股票收益率约 3.3％，并且最近又提高了股息。Northern Large Cap Value Fund (NOLVX) 的投资组合经理Donna Renaud指出，英特尔做为该公司最大投资，2010年估计将会以本益比13.2的价格交易，每股平均收益1.48美元。未来全球个人电脑出货量将有上升，英特尔也努力提升其毛利率，对投资人来说都是好的预兆。

强生 (Johnson & Johnson)
强生公司是典型的红利股票。他们被最近的巴伦调查(Barron's poll) 评为最受尊敬的公司，虽然在股价方面尚未同步反映出来。强生公司的商品从泰诺止痛药、创可贴、到高科技整形髋关节置换、以及冠状动脉支架，众多医疗用品都与民生息息相关。

强生公司在美国主要企业中，有着收入、净利、股息多年来皆稳步增长的良好纪录。该公司股票目前收益率3.1％，过去五年来股息增长平均为12％，代表了他们的股权回报率是25％以上。

分析师平均预测，强生公司2010年会以本益比13的价位交易，每股盈利为4.93美元。Pioneer Investment的专家说，现在进场买入强生股票，有机会以优惠的价格购得。

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All 10:

  Banco Santander (ticker: STD)

With many of the biggest U.S. and European banks in trouble or under pressure, this Madrid-based giant offers financial strength and geographic diversity. Last year, as other big banks snapped in the financial whirlwind, this mostly retail and deposits-oriented bank posted a 9% net profit increase to nearly nine billion euros ($13.3 billion). In 2009, once again it will probably be one of the world's most profitable banks. The dividend yield on its Big Board-listed American depositary receipts is 4.2%.

Many U.S. investors don't know much about Banco Santander, but that's likely to change as the bank, the euro zone's largest, expands in the U.S. through its Sovereign Bank unit. Santander, well-run for more than three decades by Chairman Emilio Botin, has about 14,000 branches in 16 countries, mostly in the Americas and Europe.

The stock trades at less than 11 times the consensus analyst earnings estimate of 1.08 euros ($1.60) a share next year. While Spain's real-estate and construction markets are ailing, and European growth has slowed, Santander's long-term future looks solid.

Chevron (CVX)

Big integrated energy outfits like this American oil explorer offer both a dollar hedge (because crude rises when the dollar falls) and exposure to two of the world's most important commodities: oil and natural gas. Chevron, which yields about 3.5%, is seen earning $7.65 per share in 2010, up from an estimated $4.88 this year, but down from the $11.67 of 2008, when crude hit a record price close to $150 a barrel.

With crude-oil prices down about 47% since then, Chevron has stayed solidly profitable, steadily increasing both dividends and book value per share, while making 20%-plus returns on capital. The company has more than $9 billion in cash. Chevron is growing faster than many big global peers and "has a nice focus on renewable-energy businesses," says Chris Tsai, who runs Tsai Capital in New York. "It's also a good inflationary play, perhaps better than gold when tax-adjusted," he contends.
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Stocks that pay good dividends can ease one of retiree' biggest fears -- that they will outlive their investments.

Intel (INTC)

The premier maker of microprocessors, semiconductor chips, and sundry other computer and communications gear is involved in cyclical businesses, but that's about the worst you can say about it. Intel is the 800-pound gorilla in the industry, and its manufacturing-scale and global-reach advantages would be hard to replicate, even in the tech world, where change happens quickly.

Sales bounce up and down over the years but eventually get higher through each cycle, as do profits, and dividends have grown an average 28% annually since 2004, the previous cyclical drop. Intel stock yields about 3.3%; this year marks the first time the yield has topped 3%. The company recently again raised its dividend, and there is probably more of that to come.

Donna Renaud, the lead portfolio manager of the Northern Large Cap Value Fund (NOLVX), for which Intel is a top holding, notes that it is trading around 13.2 times the 2010 consensus estimate of $1.48 a share, far below its average price/earnings multiple of 22. In the near term, global PC shipments should rise, and Intel has been boosting its gross margin guidance, which bodes well.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

This is perhaps the quintessential dividend stock. While J&J was named the most respected company in a recent Barron's poll, its stock doesn't get the respect it deserves. J&J manufactures everything from Tylenol and Band-Aids to high-tech orthopedic hip replacements and coronary stents, and numerous pharmaceuticals.

J&J has arguably the best record of any major U.S. company in steadily growing its revenue, net income and dividends over many years. The stock yields 3.1% now, while the shares, in the low 60s, are off the high of 70 hit in 2008. Dividend growth over the past five years averaged 12%, which means return on equity is 25%-plus.

J&J has been trading at less than 13 times analysts' consensus 2010 earnings estimates of $4.93 a share. Pioneer Investment's Carey says that multiple is below both the company's historical average of 17 and the overall market. "You just don't see that kind of discount. Here you have a chance to buy it at a cheap price," he says.

McDonald's (MCD)

Because its shares haven't done much in the past two years, few may know that the home of the Golden Arches has been the best-performing Dow industrial stock since 2002, up about 300% in that span. That's when the world's biggest fast-food chain slowed its expansion and redeployed its prodigious cash flow toward upgrading existing restaurants and menus, adding salads and fruits that customers wanted. All this boosted same-store sales sharply. McDonald's continues to add new items, such as premium Angus burgers and McCafe coffee.
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Despite Mickey D's domination of a relatively recession-resistant industry, its revenue and net income growth isn't always consistent. However, the stock yields about 3.5%, and dividends have grown nearly 30% annually over the past five years. Bahl & Gaynor's McCormick says expansion outside the U.S., particularly in higher-growth markets like China, will help the fast-food chain over the long term and support its dividend.

Caveat: With 41% of operating earnings from Europe, McDonald's has benefited from the surging euro. If the greenback strengthens, profit would be hurt.

Nestlé (NSRGY)

Like J&J, the Swiss behemoth is steady and solid as the tortoise in the race with the hare. The world's largest food processor boasts wide product diversity and geographic reach, in the West and in fast-growing emerging markets, where the company is making a big push.

Nestlé has more than $100 billion in sales per year, but continues to gain market share in many of its markets and to experience mid-single-digit organic sales growth, an impressive task for a company that size. Its balance sheet is probably the strongest in the food industry, giving it the wherewithal to undertake bolt-on acquisitions.

The stock yields 2.6%, and dividends have grown over 11% annually for the last five years. For many companies this size, a P/E ratio of 15 times 2010 consensus estimates would be rich, but "Nestlé offers both a quality company and a dividend yield above the market average," says Christoph Riniker, a senior strategist at Bank Julius Baer.

Novartis (NVS)

This leading manufacturer of drugs -- from cardiovascular medicines like Diovan to oncology and neuroscience compounds, as well as vaccines and diagnostic tests and over-the-counter products such as Excedrin -- also gives international exposure and would help diversify a retirement portfolio away from the dollar.

The Basel, Switzerland-based firm's American depositary receipts have a dividend yield of 3.2%, and the payout has risen, on average, 15% annually over the past five years. At less than 12 times consensus 2010 earnings estimates of 4.63 Swiss francs ($4.55), Novartis is cheap, compared with the market P/E and its own average historical multiple of 18.

While investors fret about the coming loss of patent, in 2011, on best-selling blood-pressure medication Diovan, sales of new drugs such as Galvus for diabetes and Tekturn for hypertension are building. In the near term, Novartis's H1N1, or swine flu, vaccine should boost results. Novartis' agreement to buy Alcon before August 2011 from Nestlé at a potentially rich price also worries some investors. But Novartis is good at cutting costs, and its sales are likely to keep growing in the high single digits.

Table: Lots of Bench Strength

PepsiCo (PEP)

In the never-ending cola wars, PepsiCo is our selection because it offers a bit more sales growth than Coca-Cola (KO), which made our second list.

PepsiCo is expanding in fast-growing markets like Russia and China, and through the introduction of new products like naturally sweetened beverages, in an already-diverse portfolio, according to Bahl & Gaynor's McCormick. Its dividend, which represents a 2.9% yield, has risen at a 17.5% annual clip over the past five years. The stock trades at 15 times consensus EPS estimates of $4.22 next year, but the company is one of the fastest growers in this portfolio. Return on equity has consistently hovered around 30%, and earnings are "extremely stable," McCormick adds.

That's music to a retiree's ears.

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Cincinnati-based P&G is another of the U.S.'s great franchises, with a widely diverse manufacturing, product and customer base around the world. It would be difficult to find a country where it doesn't either make or sell one of its laundry, beauty-care, food or health-care products.

The stock is just below the market multiple and little changed for the year, with a 2.8% yield, the highest it's been in some time, notes Pioneer's Carey. "It's a strong company in a lot of business areas."

Sales fell for the fiscal year ended June 2009, a rare occurrence, and there are some worries about people trading down in a recession. However, P&G still managed to boost earnings again, and it continues to gain share in lucrative growth markets. It's also adept at cutting costs.

Both the stock price and the projected 2010 P/E of 15 times earnings are far below the company's historical average. Over the past five years, the dividend has grown by an annual average of 12%.

Verizon Communications (VZ)

This telecom has the highest dividend yield in our bunch, 6.2%, because many investors fear it eventually won't be able to replace revenue from the industry's ongoing loss of land lines.

But through its Verizon Wireless joint venture with Vodafone (VOD), Verizon is the largest U.S. wireless-service provider, notes Darren Pollock, a portfolio manager at Cheviot Value Management. "Verizon continues to add wireless subscribers at a good clip, even without the ability to offer hot products like Apple's iPhone." Its network is generally considered the most reliable in the U.S.

Verizon has begun selling the Droid, a mobile phone that runs on the Android operating system (see Gadget of the Week). Meanwhile, AT&T's (T) exclusive deal to sell the iPhone in the U.S. (see related story) could end by June, after which Verizon might sell the Apple product. That could be a huge boost for its wireless business.

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