WNR 怎么样？

redmond

有谁分析一下FA? 这个公司会CHAPTER 11吗？

AGA7d

I have some WNR - lost a bunch of course. The problem for refiners is over-capacity. The utilization is only 70+%, compared to 90+% a few years ago. The refiners have not cut production fast enough to match the demand, resulting thin crack margin.

Another problem, of course, is the capital intensive nature of the refining business. Shutting down a refinery facility will bring a big loss. And WNR indicated it would close one in NM.

So far, we have not seen the crack spread coming back (there are also imports further complicating the problem). Therefore, there is no need to buy at the moment.

For the balance sheet, WNR is fine. It issued a secondary in June @ $9/share. The loss in the most recent quarter (11/06/2009) is only $4.8 million. So I don't see a BK any time soon.

One or two quarters away, WNR will be back to black.

The bottom? $3.5 is my guess.

wangbin

2# AGA7d
So you mean 30% of its book value will be its bottom. Thanks

AGA7d

You cannot use the normal "book value" - if a plant is idled and there is no re-start in a long time, then it may have to write off the asset. Just like VLO wrote off $4-5/share not long ago.

redmond

谢谢！