Stocks, Commodities Rally as Dollar and Yen Retreat Before Fed

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By Daniel Hauck and David Merritt

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities rose around the world and gold reached a record, while the dollar and the yen fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will repeat its stance that rates will stay on hold for an “extended period.”

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets added 0.6 percent at 10:08 a.m. in London and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.7 percent. Gold climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $1,093.70 an ounce, while oil traded above $80 a barrel in New York. The yen fell against all 16 of the most- traded currencies and the dollar dropped against 14.

Fed policy makers end a two-day meeting today, with economists predicting the central bank will say it needs to keep borrowing costs low to sustain growth. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England set monetary policy tomorrow. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss- Kahn said it’s too soon for governments to consider halting stimulus programs.

“It’s too risky for the Federal Reserve to play around raising interest rates before the economic recovery takes hold and becomes independent of stimulus measures,” said Tim Brunne, a credit strategist with UniCredit SpA in Munich. “We don’t expect the Fed to start raising rates until the fourth quarter of 2010 at the earliest.”

European Earnings

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rebounded from a one- month low, climbing 1.2 percent as earnings at companies from Societe Generale SA to Marks & Spencer Group Plc beat analysts’ estimates.

Societe Generale, France’s second-biggest bank by market value, increased 3.2 percent in Paris after third-quarter earnings doubled as its investment-banking unit returned to profit. Marks & Spencer, the U.K.’s largest clothing retailer, climbed 4.3 percent in London after saying it made a “good start” to the third quarter.

Earnings have beaten estimates at 59 percent of the 170 companies in the Stoxx 600 to have announced results since Oct. 7, according to Bloomberg data. That compares with 84 percent of the 364 companies in the S&P 500 that have topped forecasts during the same period.

Futures indicated the S&P 500 will gain for a third day. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses may show at 10 a.m. New York time that service industries in the U.S. expanded in October for a second month, according to the median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Emerging Markets

A separate report at 8:15 a.m. from ADP Employer Services may show companies cut 198,000 jobs last month, according to the median estimate of economists. The reduction would be the smallest in more than a year.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced the most in three weeks, rising 1.7 percent. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index added 2.7 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 1.9 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased for a fourth day, adding 0.5 percent, the longest stretch of gains in two months.

The rand jumped 1.4 percent after South African Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Daniel Mminele said policy makers will continue accumulating reserves without intervening in the foreign-exchange market, according to a copy of a speech posted on the bank’s Web site late yesterday.

The rand rose the most against the yen among 16 major currencies. The Norwegian krone also climbed 1.4 percent. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against the U.S.’s biggest trading partners, dropped 0.4 percent.

Exit Strategies

Central banks around the world are debating how to exit measures that are helping to haul economies out of the recession after spending a total of $12 trillion, by International Monetary Fund estimates. U.S. employers reduced payrolls by 175,000 last month, a Labor Department report may show on Nov. 6, according to the median of 82 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, compared with 263,000 job losses in September.

“The main interest for investors will be if the Fed makes any changes to its language about the duration of exceptionally low rates,” Lena Komileva, an economist at Tullett Prebon Plc in London, wrote in a report today. “The FOMC statement tonight is likely to prove dollar- and rates-negative and equities- and credit-positive.”

Germany led declines in government bonds, with the yield on the 10-year bund, Europe’s benchmark debt security, rising 5 basis points to 3.31 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed 1 basis point to 3.48 percent.

Default Swaps

Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly speculative-grade companies dropped 19.5 basis points to 527.5, the first decline since Oct. 29, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices. The index is a benchmark for the cost of protecting bonds against default and a drop signals an improvement in perceptions of credit quality.

Commodity prices were boosted by a weaker dollar, which heightens the appeal of raw materials as an alternative investment. Crude for December delivery rose 51 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $80.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Industrial metals rallied on the London Metal Exchange, as copper added 1.9 percent to $6,585 a metric ton and nickel jumped 2.1 percent to $18,175 a ton.