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The economy is still on life support. Look at whatever the macro indicators - housing, employment, consumer spending, debt level, all bad. However, most of the big companies reported decent earnings in the 3rd Q. The theme is Y2Y revenue down some, earnings down less - yet beat the lowered bar. It is clear the good earnings are at least partly due to the cost-cutting. Market leap-frogged ahead according to the earnings.
There appears to be a big dislocation here. To me the earnings are as good as one can hopeful. On the other hand, when companies are in defense mode, the earnings won't be too bad. Therefore, the market will likely range-bound - 8200 to 11000? Without another financial earthquake (like the US debt blow-up, dollar down quickly etc), I don't see much chance to go even lower. |
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