GS upgrade Finance

iamwym

http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... ve-2009-10-05-81100

看来是不止我一个看好financials earning哈，呵呵。

最近和GS有缘，手里几只港股都被GS最近一周都被upgrade了，呵呵，GS非常明显在吹泡泡做多equity market。

colderdown

Everything GS upgraded, you shall sell and lock in profit.

iamwym

Everything GS upgraded, you shall sell and lock in profit.
colderdown 发表于 2009-10-5 20:37

如果我之前这样做的话，今年利润要少个0，呵呵。gs上次炒油从80开始就大力pump，和它对着干的小基金早就是历史的尘埃了。

炒股哪能看投行的comments，主要还是自己要有判断。任何投行要是PUMP一个最近3个月double的股票，那确实要小心了，如果它们upgrade一个箱体整理三个月的股票，呵呵，我看不出有多大风险。

ROOKIE2

高

牛二买刀

That is why XLF became the 1st run to BB line.

penguin

高

maimait

沈家大佬厉害

dara

I am going to buy GS OCT 175 PUT  again, I sold  it twice already, haha.

It is a pity that I did not buy 185 CALLs on Friday.

colderdown

3# iamwym

I think you got it wrong. If you read public GS statement, it began to pump oil when it was 120. GS began to pump A share when it was 2900. Good luck on following GS statements, especailly when everyone can read it. Don't hold them over 4 weeks.

iamwym

3# iamwym

I think you got it wrong. If you read public GS statement, it began to pump oil when it was 120. GS began to pump A share when it was 2900. Good luck on following GS statements, especai ...
colderdown 发表于 2009-10-6 00:11

在还真不知道什么是GS public statement，我虽然在GS里面有几个挺那么回事儿朋友，但是大家都很遵守业界规则，绝不可能交换敏感信息的……

GS hedge fund从八月开始唱空石油，说中短期去46，equity research则对内部用户大力pump中国石油股，commodity research最近才开始唱多，你说该听哪个的？再说了，GS这么大，内部也不是铁板一块，说什么gs开始pump就如何如何，拿出数据来，统计一下gs equity rating的正确率，事后你会发现这公司比大部分同行做了好。当然，个人认为美林也许是最好的，这是题外话了。

A股2900唱多怎么了，空头不死，A股绝对不会见顶，有本事进去抢钱就去抢呗，没本事一边儿凉快着。A股金融都和港股倒挂了，不少绩优蓝筹股比3月低点就高了半口气，在我看来，现在唱空的才是居心叵测。

再说了，我无非就是要BSO一下前几天我对financial sector的预期和GS昨天现在出来的一致，这位朋友要是看不惯就明说吧，也别开口就是说别人错了，你不会是在生活中说话就是开口“No” “不对” “你错了” “不是” 那种怂人吧？胡同什么时候也和mitbbs一样开口就是bash人了？

colderdown

10# iamwym

If you consider that is a bashing, you got it wrong again. I wish you know Andrew Tilton too.

I am with you that GS is a good trading firm (hell, I was there). Here are some calls for its' clients this yr:

"1. Close long Chinese A-shares at 2,536, opened at 2,079 for a target of 2,600, with a potential gain of 22%.

2. Close long/short EM FX Differentiation Basket (with 20% long EUR/PLN, 30% long EUR/CZK, 15% long EUR/TRY, 20% short US$/MXN, 15% short US$/BRL), opened at 100 for a target 106 in spot (plus carry), with potential gains of 7.9%.

3. Close short Dec-11 crude oil futures at US$60.88/bbl, opened at US$67.97, for potential gains of 10.4%.

4. Close long US 30-yr 5% Fannie-Mae MBS, opened at 4.7% for a target of 4%, with potential gains of 250bp (inclusive of carry).

5. Close short credit protection on Sweden through 5-yr CDS, opened at 148bp for a target of 60bp, with potential gains of 71bp (excluding carry).

6. Close long Wavefront housing basket, opened at 58.97, for a potential gain of 18.5%.

7. Close long Cable, opened at 1.48, for an initial target of 1.65, with potential gains of 12% (including carry).

8. Stay short EUR versus an equally-weighted basket of NOK, SEK and GBP, opened at 100 for a target of 90, potential carry adjusted performance: 7.0%.

9. Stay long a basket of EM vs G3 currencies (long BRL, MXN, ZAR, RUB, IDR vs. short USD, EUR and JPY) through 12 month forwards, opened at 100 for a target of 110, potential carry adjusted performance: 9.7%.

10. Stay long China Cyclicals, short US Consumer Cyclicals (CHICON, ticker GSWBCHCO) at 178.40 for a target of 210, now at 170.42.

11. Stay long $/JPY, opened at 95.30 for an initial target of 105, currently 89.62, potential carry adjusted performance -5.45%."

Of course, just like you said "有本事进去抢钱就去抢呗，没本事一边儿凉快着。" You must be a much better trader than I am or I will ever be. So, I will be "一边儿凉快着"。Let's stop here and I do apologize if I offend you by any means.
  
PS: I think those calls were great and showed that why GS is a top trading firm. But I am wondering how did GS analysts know WFC got Wachovia cheap since even WFC's CEO did not know that for sure. How come P.J. let WFC go and exchanged it with JPM, BAC. Of couse, I am a low low hand. As a low low hand, rule#1 is I do not play with something I don't understand.

QuickHand

1# iamwym



GS是很讲政治的, 这也是他能当老大的重要原因...

CoolMax

很好的讨论啊，今天分红老大还在抱怨没有好的讨论。

iamwym

10# iamwym

If you consider that is a bashing, you got it wrong again. I wish you know Andrew Tilton too.

I am with you that GS is a good trading firm (hell, I was there). Here are some calls  ...
colderdown 发表于 2009-10-6 03:07

I know some guys in AP and EU area, mainly in floor trading groups - they are actually making money for both GS and their bonus :) I don't know the guy you mentioned.

What you posted pretty much looks like the strategies of GS hedge fund, such as long Chinese commodity firms and currency strategies.

For your P.S.:
There are some principals. Some firms can always making money because they are sitting with state power. Like Citic in China, like GS in the States, like DB in Germany, they are not simply firms that make money for shareholders. No normal people can fully aware of the state power, nor they can know some really first-hand information from inside. However, it does not really have impact on personal trading. Like this market, apparently, the economy will bottom again, but it is fully reasonable for DOW to hit 12000 and then retreat to 8800 to form another bottom, also it's reasonable to test 8800 first and then top before 12000 later this year. People can accept any market fluctuation as they always did, because public media will explain whatever non-sense bulshiit and people will just believe it. Again, this does not reflect trading strategy and people simply don't need to understand why, as long as they can follow their trading style which makes money.

Thanks for your reply. Glad to know you are not bashing me.

jeff110

嗯，看来FAS还可以多守守．