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If Hugo Chavez Is Selling Dollars, Maybe You Should Be Buying
Venezuela's bond deal suggests the markets are getting a bit carried away with the dollar-carry trade.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125423654414149515.html
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Venezuela thus joins the parade of foreign borrowers issuing bonds denominated in dollars. That means they're expecting to pay back those debts in devalued dollars.
As noted in this space previously, borrowing dollars to put to work elsewhere at higher yields is an example of global carry trade. And that effectively is a short sale of dollars, a bet on their decline.
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"That to me is a sign the short-U.S. dollar trade is ripe for a reversal, when basically the biggest idiot in the house is short," writes Nic Lenoir of ICAP, the major money broker, on ZeroHedge.com.
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