The US stock market may be very close to an important top

johnli

The US stock market may be close to important top. Nasadq is very close to major resisatance : 2150. $SPX is close to test long term down trend line. If we are still in bear market, the long term downtrend line should be the stop of bear market rally. If we are in new bull market (starting 3/09), the long term down trend line could still be imporant resistance to initiate a big correction. VIX has been holding above support at 23.15 for the last 8 trading days and has been very oversold, which is not bullish sign for stock market.

Because the uptrend is so strong, although I am calling a possible top, we'd better wait to see some bearish reversal sign before opening shorts.  For Nasadq, the short term support is at 2120.

http://stocktrendtradingsystems.blogspot.com/

xiaoshitou

Thanks for sharing.

acoust

想发

Thanks

palm

thanks.

tcm328pan

Thank you gye

whoami2k7

follow the trend!
market want up!
I won't challenge it!

ruoshui

thanks

nasa1100

xiaoht

股市下来时，这个点没成为支撑，上去时会作为顶吗？

michaelzhang

thx!!

harley

acura

johnli

When the uptrend is strong, negative divergence /overbaught reading may not  work. Market can just keep going up. Today's upside action is another example of this.   That's why I think bears got to be patient before opening shorts, although I think we may see the top today or it's very close to the top.
In my view, when the uptrend is strong, the only reliable factor to tell trend reversal is price weakness. Breaking 2120 will confirm the short term reversal.